CZ Cattle Market Analytics analyst Ed Czerwien from Amarillo, TX, provides the following fed cattle and boxed beef recaps for the week ending August 28, 2021.
Fed cattle recap:
The feedlot cattle trades for WE Aug 28 were mostly 1 higher but the cash sales volume was much lower than the previous week.
The Five-area formula sales volume totaled 234,991 head compared to about 243,000 the previous week. The Five-area total cash steer and heifer volume was 48,176 head compared to about 78,000 head the previous week.
Nationally reported forward contracted cattle harvested was about 34,000 head this week and packers had 153,000 head for August and 201,000 head for September. The nationally reported 15-30 day delivery purchases this week were 24,203 head along with about 25,000 head for the previous week.
Now looking at the prices. The weekly weighted average cash steer price for WE 08/28/21 for the five-area region was $125.74, which was $0.27 higher compared to the previous week and last year the same week it was $105.09 which was about $1.50 lower that week last year. The same week in 2015 it was $144.86 even though the daily Choice cutout now was about 102 dollars higher than 2015. This week the current five area weighted average live steer formula price was $125.38 and the live formula heifer price was $126.45.
The weighted average Five-area cash dressed steer price was $204.45 which was $3.30 higher. The five-area weighted average formula price which is steers and heifers was $199.13 which was $0.63 higher.
The estimated weekly total FIS cattle harvest for week ending Aug 28 was reported at 651,000 head and compared to 654,000 head the same week last year. The year to date total is still over 800,000 head higher than last year.
The latest average National steer carcass weight for WE Aug 14 was 898 lbs which was 2 lbs higher than the previous week and compared to 909 lbs the same week last year which 3 lbs higher than the previous week last year. During the Fall with cooler weather these carcass weights continue to climb higher with better gains at the feedlots.
Choice-Select spread on Friday Aug 27 was at 29.82 compared to 26.53 the previous week but it had been over 30 several days during the last 2 weeks and that compared to 14.54 spread last year. Always remember that when this spread is wide like now the Northern cattle usually bring higher prices because of higher grading when Choice prices are much higher than Select. The recent USDA NATIONAL STEER & HEIFER ESTIMATED GRADING PERCENT REPORT for week ending: 8/14/2021 showed Nebraska with 75 percent Choice along with 8 percent Prime but Texas only had 65 percent Choice along with 5 percent Prime. That is normal because the Southern genetics which tolerates very hot weather usually do not grade as high a percent Choice. However, the Kansas cattle grading was 76 percent Choice and 6 percent Prime which did not help their prices much probably because of low cash volume and high formula volume.
Boxed beef recap:
The daily spot Choice box beef cutout ended the week on Friday Aug 27 at $345.34 which was $0.28 higher compared to previous Friday but it had been at $348 so it appears to be topping out after climbing much higher. Last year it was $229.40 on the same Friday, which was about $3.50 higher. During 2015 it was $243.22 on the same Friday so about 102 dollars higher now.
The end of this week the daily Choice Chuck and Round primal were steady. The daily Choice Loin primal was steady and the Rib was $12 higher which was $228 higher during the last 7 weeks. The weekly total for the daily cutout was 433 loads which dropped down quite a bit lately during the last 6 weeks and about 7 % of the weekly total loads sold.
The weekly average Choice cutout which includes all types of sales including the daily Choice cutout was 332.66 which was $20.76 higher and still climbing much higher than all previous years now.
The total sales were 6269 total loads sold for the week which was 756 loads lower than the previous week. It had been dropping lower the last five weeks during the big price rally.
The out-front sales which get delivered after 21 days were 1091 loads which was 477 loads lower than last week.
The exports as reported on the Box Beef report were 861 loads which was 303 loads higher compared to the previous week. This week 79 loads were sold to our NAFTA neighbors and 782 loads were going overseas.
Formula sales were at 3560 loads which was 81 loads lower than last week and about 57 percent of the total loads sold this week.
Taking a look at the major primal cuts which impact the cutout value and the weekly average numbers include all of the different types of sales. The weekly average Choice Chuck and Round primal were 10 to 12 higher.
The weekly average Choice Rib primal was 63 higher and the Loin primal was 31 higher so both were helped by the formula sales.
The daily cow cutout ended the week on Friday Aug 27 was $ 1.74 higher at $233.49 and the 90% trimmings were at $277.51 which was $ 0.71 higher compared to the previous Friday.
The latest report of Imported meat passed for entry into the U.S. for week ending Aug 21 showed 25,128 metric tons of fresh beef which was about 100 higher than the previous week and about 1100 lower than last year. The year to date total for these imports is 8 % lower than last year so it continues to be much lower. The top 4 countries are Canada which is number one and is 10 % higher than last year, Mexico is the second highest but 9 % lower than last year, New Zealand is 6 % lower, and Australia which is 42 % lower.
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