CZ Cattle Market Analytics analyst Ed Czerwien from Amarillo, TX, provides the following fed cattle recap for the week ending Oct. 2, 2021.
Fed cattle recap:
The feedlot cattle trades for WE Oct 02 were steady to 2 lower and the cash sales volume was higher than the previous week.
The Five-area formula sales volume totaled 224,060 head compared to about 240,000 the previous week. The Five-area total cash steer and heifer volume was 76,456 head compared to about 54,000 head the previous week.
Nationally reported forward contracted cattle harvested was about 48,000 head this week and packers have 201,000 head for September and 196,000 head for October. The nationally reported 15-30 day delivery purchases this week were 20,171 head along with about 8,000 head for the previous week.
Now looking at the prices. The weekly weighted average cash steer price for the five-area region was $122.56, which was $1.08 lower compared to the previous week and last year the same week it was $107.12 which was about $2.00 higher that week last year. The same week in 2014 it was $160.54 even though the daily Choice cutout now was about 54 dollars higher than 2014. This week the current five area weighted average live steer formula price was $126.84 and the live formula heifer price was $125.75.
The weighted average Five-area cash dressed steer price was $195.17 which was $1.13 lower. The five-area weighted average formula price which is steers and heifers was $201.65 which was $0.71 lower.
The estimated weekly total FIS cattle harvest for week ending Oct 02 was reported at 637,000 head and compared to 664,000 head the same week last year.
The latest average National steer carcass weight for WE Sep 18 was 912 lbs which was 3 lbs higher than the previous week and compared to 919 lbs the same week last year which 1 lbs lower than the previous week last year.
Choice-Select spread on Friday Oct 01 was at 27.52 compared to 28.79 the previous week and that compared to 11.27 spread last year.
Boxed beef recap:
The daily spot Choice box beef cutout ended the week on Friday Oct 01 at $292.36 which was $10.96 lower compared to previous Friday so now about $52 lower during the last 5 weeks. Last year it was $218.88 on the same Friday, which was about $1.00 lower. During 2014 it was $238.32 on the same Friday so about 54 dollars higher now. The end of this week the daily Choice Chuck and Round primal were 9 lower to 8 higher. The daily Choice Loin primal was 18 lower and the Rib was 38 lower again. The weekly total for the daily cutout was 665 loads and about 10 % of the weekly total loads sold.
The weekly average Choice cutout which includes all types of sales including the daily Choice cutout was 297.85 which was $10.22 lower but still much higher than all previous years now. However, like previously said the weekly average is following the daily cutout slowly which is always normal because many but not all formula sales are priced off of the previous week’s daily spot prices.
The total sales were 6506 total loads sold for the week which was 698 loads lower than the previous week that had been helped by very good exports. It had been lower for a while during the big price rally which pushed the four-week moving average graph of weekly total loads sold lower than all previous years but that is finally starting to get higher now on the heels of lower prices.
The out-front sales which get delivered after 21 days were 1363 loads which was 373 loads lower than last week but still much higher volume than the weekly total for the daily cutout which is normal. The largest out-front sales this week included about 1.5 million lbs of Choice top inside Round that were 3 dollars higher priced than the same current formula prices.
The exports as reported on the Box Beef report were 1065 loads which was 374 loads lower compared to the previous week. This week 112 loads were sold to our NAFTA neighbors and 953 loads were going overseas. These exports always drop lower when our prices are much higher than the global beef prices but the last few weeks of dropping prices really increased these exports to bigger volume above 1000 loads each week.
Formula sales were at 3270 loads which was 174 loads lower than last week and about 50 percent of the total loads sold this week.
Taking a look at the major primal cuts which impact the cutout value and the weekly average numbers include all of the different types of sales. The weekly average Choice Rib primal was 30 lower and the Loin primal was 13 lower. However, like previously said many times the Choice Rib always goes much higher ahead of the Prime Rib type cooking for Thanksgiving and Christmas parties, which has gotten bigger the last few years so after dropping down some it will rebound much higher. The weekly average Choice Chuck was 6 lower and Round primal was 5 higher helped by the out-front sales. Both continue to be still much higher than any time except last year during the medical epidemic.
The daily cow cutout ended the week on Friday Oct 01 was $ 1.14 lower at $231.53 and the 90% trimmings were at $276.00 which was $ 0.93 lower compared to the previous Friday.
The latest report of Imported meat passed for entry into the U.S. for week ending Sep 25 showed 21,123 metric tons of fresh beef which was about 1300 lower than the previous week and about 2800 lower than last year. The year to date total for these imports is now 9 % lower than last year so it continues to be much lower. The top 4 countries are Canada which is number one and is 11 % higher than last year, Mexico is the second highest but 8 % lower than last year, New Zealand is 5 % lower, and Australia which is 43 % lower.
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