CZ Cattle Market Analytics analyst Ed Czerwien from Amarillo, TX, provides the following fed cattle recap for the week ending Oct. 16, 2021.
Fed cattle recap:
The feedlot cattle trades for WE Oct 16 were mostly steady but a few up to 3 higher and the cash sales volume was higher than the previous week.
The Five-area formula sales volume totaled 235,573 head compared to about 240,000 the previous week. The Five-area total cash steer and heifer volume was 79,667 head compared to about 68,000 head the previous week.
Nationally reported forward contracted cattle harvested was about 45,000 head this week and packers have 199,000 head for October. The nationally reported 15-30 day delivery purchases this week were 17,237 head along with about 8,000 head for the previous week.
Now looking at the prices. The weekly weighted average cash steer price for the five-area region was $123.84, which was $0.88 higher compared to the previous week and last year the same week it was $107.52 which was about $0.75 lower that week last year. The same week in 2014 it was $163.76 even though the daily Choice cutout now was about 31 dollars higher than 2014. Also, the cutout dropped 63 dollars lower the last 6 weeks, so it was almost $100 higher for a while, but the average cash fed cattle prices have been only up to $125.74 this year but in 2014 it topped out above $170.00.
This week the current five area weighted average live steer formula price was $125.03 and the live formula heifer price was $125.78.
The weighted average Five-area cash dressed steer price was $195.70 which was $0.33 higher. The five-area weighted average formula price which is steers and heifers was $200.23 which was $0.26 lower.
The estimated weekly total FIS cattle harvest for week ending Oct 16 was reported at 646,000 head and compared to 659,000 head the same week last year.
The latest average National steer carcass weight for WE Oct 02 was 916 lbs which was 2 lbs higher than the previous week and compared to 924 lbs the same week last year which was the same as the previous week last year.
Choice-Select spread on Friday Oct 15 was at 19.62 compared to 20.53 the previous week and that compared to 16.51 spread last year.
Boxed beef recap:
The daily spot Choice box beef cutout ended the week on Friday Oct 15 at $280.24 which was $3.03 lower compared to previous Friday so now about $63 lower during the last 7 weeks. Last year it was $210.03 on the same Friday, which was about $4.00 lower. During 2014 it was $249.16 on the same Friday so about 31 dollars higher now. The end of this week the daily Choice Chuck and Round primal were 4 lower to 1 higher. The daily Choice Loin primal was 4 lower and the Rib was 5 lower, so it has dropped about 136 lower in the last 4 weeks. The weekly total for the daily cutout was 752 loads and about 11 % of the weekly total loads sold.
The weekly average Choice cutout which includes all types of sales including the daily Choice cutout was 281.35 which was $7.14 lower but still much higher than all previous years now.
The total sales were 6445 total loads sold for the week which was 263 loads lower than the previous week.
The out-front sales which get delivered after 21 days were 1042 loads which was 270 loads lower than last week.
The exports as reported on the Box Beef report were 692 loads which was 301 loads lower compared to the previous week. This week 82 loads were sold to our NAFTA neighbors and 610 loads were going overseas.
Formula sales were at 3448 loads which was 4 loads higher than last week and about 53 percent of the total loads sold this week.
Taking a look at the major primal cuts which impact the cutout value and the weekly average numbers include all of the different types of sales. The weekly average Choice Rib primal was 35 lower and the Loin primal was 8 lower. The weekly average Choice Chuck was 4 lower and Round primal was 3 higher. Both continue to be still much higher than any time except last year during the medical epidemic.
The daily cow cutout ended the week on Friday Oct 15 was $ 1.97 lower at $231.69 and the 90% trimmings were at $277.17 which was $ 3.12 lower compared to the previous Friday.
The latest report of Imported meat passed for entry into the U.S. for week ending Oct 09 showed 21,305 metric tons of fresh beef which was about 1500 lower than the previous week and about 2000 higher than last year. The year to date total for these imports is 8 % lower than last year so it continues to be much lower. The top 4 countries are Canada which is number one and is 11 % higher than last year, Mexico is the second highest but 7 % lower than last year, New Zealand is 4 % lower, and Australia which is 43 % lower.
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