APRIL 21, 2023:
WASHINGTON (AP) — A poll shows only about half of Democrats think President Joe Biden should run again in 2024, but a large majority say they’d be likely to support him if he became the nominee. The poll by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research shows that 26% of Americans overall want to see Biden run again — a slight recovery from the 22% who said that in January (2023). Forty-seven percent of Democrats say they want him to run, also up slightly from only 37% who said that in January. Fifty-nine-year-old voter Jenipher Lagana says she likes the 80-year-old Biden but her “problem with him running in 2024” is his age.
Extended version:
WASHINGTON (AP) — Only about half of Democrats think President Joe Biden should run again in 2024, a poll shows, but a large majority say they’d be likely to support him if he became the nominee.
The poll by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research shows that 26% of Americans overall want to see Biden run again — a slight recovery from the 22% who said that in January. Forty-seven percent of Democrats say they want him to run, also up slightly from only 37% who said that in January (2023).
The ambivalence among Democratic voters comes as Biden is preparing to formally announce his 2024 reelection campaign as soon as next week, according to people briefed on the discussions. The president has been eyeing Tuesday, April 25 — four years to the day since he entered the 2020 race — although no final decisions have been made.
Despite the reluctance of many Democrats to see Biden run for another term, 78% of them say they approve of the job he’s doing as president. And a total of 81% of Democrats say they would at least probably support Biden in a general election if he is the nominee — 41% say they definitely would and 40% say they probably would.
Interviews with poll respondents suggest that the gap reflects concerns about Biden’s age, as well as a clamoring from a younger generation of Democrats who say they want leadership that reflects their demographic and their values. Biden, now 80, would be 82 on Election Day 2024 and 86 years old at the end of a second presidential term. He is the oldest president in history.
Jenipher Lagana, 59, said she likes Biden, calling him an “interesting man” who has had an “incredible political career.” She praised Biden for providing a “breath of fresh air” and said she approves of how he’s been doing his job as president.
But “my problem with him running in 2024 is that he’s just so old,” said Lagana, who is retired and lives in California. “I would love to see somebody younger, like (Transportation Secretary Pete) Buttigieg or (California Gov. Gavin) Newsom be able to get in there and handle things maybe a little differently just because they’re a younger person.”
Donna Stewart, 48, a program director for a nonprofit in New York, also pointed to Biden’s age as a concern.
“I voted for him. I like him as a person. I like him as a leader for the country,” she said. “However, I just feel that he’s still lacking the up-to-date knowledge of what needs to be done.”
During the 2020 presidential campaign, Biden appeared to hint that he would limit himself to just one term in the White House, framing his candidacy as a bridge to a new generation of Democratic leaders. But while in office, Biden has made his intentions clearer that he would run again for a second term, saying as recently as last week in Ireland that he’s “already made that calculus” and that the announcement will happen “relatively soon.”
With only nominal primary challengers and a chaotic Republican field, the president and his senior aides have felt little pressure to formalize a reelection campaign. Instead, Biden has focused on governing, holding events at the White House and traveling across the country to sell his top legislative achievements such as a bipartisan infrastructure law and a sweeping climate, health care and tax package.
The president and his senior political advisers are meeting with Democratic donors in Washington next week in an event meant to energize the party’s top contributors ahead of Biden’s expected reelection campaign.
Biden has also batted away questions about his age, saying that voters simply need to “watch me” to determine whether he’s up to the job as president.
And while many Democrats remain tepid on Biden because of his age, others said it was actually an asset.
Stephen Foery, 47, said Biden’s decades in Washington — first in the Senate and then as vice president — proved to be valuable in the first two years of his presidency “because he’s done a lot to fix the country in a very short amount of time.”
“I think that one of the benefits of living a long life is that you have a lot of wisdom to impart,” said Foery, a creative services manager in Pennsylvania. “If you gain as much experience as Biden has throughout his life, it would be a shame to simply disregard him because of his age.”
Biden’s job approval rating stands at 42%, a slight improvement from 38% in March. The March poll came after a pair of bank failures rattled an already shaky confidence in the nation’s financial systems, and Biden’s approval rating then was near the lowest point of his presidency. Thirty percent of Americans call the national economy good, a slight improvement from 25% a month ago.
Younger Democrats remain a reluctant part of Biden’s coalition — just 25% of those under age 45 say they would definitely support Biden in a general election, compared with 56% of older Democrats. Still, an additional 51% of younger Democrats say they would probably vote for Biden in a 2024 general election.
“It’s really hard to support somebody who is such a career politician, who has a vested interest in maintaining the status quo when the status quo doesn’t work for me,” said Otis Phillips, 20, who lives in Washington state.
Phillips, a student, said he has been pleased with some of Biden’s initiatives, including his student loan forgiveness program and his focus on climate policy. But he emphasized: “I don’t like maintaining the status quo. And so I want things to change, and I don’t think Biden’s how we’re going to get that in the next four years.”
Both the current and former president could face resistance from the public as a whole in a general election. A total of 65% of U.S. adults say they would definitely or probably not support former President Donald Trump if he is nominated in a general election, including 53% who say they definitely would not. Biden’s obstacles are smaller by comparison but still substantial: 56% of Americans say they would be unlikely to support Biden in a general election, including 41% who say they would definitely not.
Biden has long bet that once voters are presented with a binary choice — either him or a Republican candidate, particularly if it is Trump — that a majority of the electorate will side with Democrats. He often quotes his father, Joseph R. Biden Sr., in his public remarks: “Joey, don’t compare me to the Almighty. Compare me to the alternative.”
“The only reason why I would not want him to run is because of his age. Like, that’s the only thing,” said Shakeen Magee, 45, a self-employed Georgia resident.
But she said that if Biden does officially become the Democratic nominee in 2024, she would definitely support him “because we can’t take another Trump.” Magee added that “if we were to get another Republican in that office, it would just undo the little progress that Biden has been able to make.”
FEBRUARY 6, 2023:
WASHINGTON (AP) — A majority of Democrats now think one term is plenty for President Joe Biden, despite his insistence that he plans to seek reelection in 2024. That’s according to a new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. It shows just 37% of Democrats say they want Biden to seek a second term, down from 52% in the weeks before last year’s midterm elections. While Biden has trumpeted his legislative victories and ability to govern, the poll suggests relatively few U.S. adults give him high marks on either.
Extended version:
WASHINGTON (AP) — A majority of Democrats now think one term is plenty for President Joe Biden, despite his insistence that he plans to seek reelection in 2024.
That’s according to a new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research that shows just 37% of Democrats say they want him to seek a second term, down from 52% in the weeks before last year’s midterm elections.
While Biden has trumpeted his legislative victories and ability to govern, the poll suggests relatively few U.S. adults give him high marks on either. Follow-up interviews with poll respondents suggest that many believe the 80-year-old’s age is a liability, with people focused on his coughing, his gait, his gaffes and the possibility that the world’s most stressful job would be better suited for someone younger.
“I, honestly, think that he would be too old,” said Sarah Overman, 37, a Democrat who works in education in Raleigh, North Carolina. “We could use someone younger in the office.”
As the president gives his State of the Union address on Tuesday, he has a chance to confront fundamental doubts about his competence to govern. Biden has previously leaned heavily on his track record to say that he’s more than up to the task. When asked if he can handle the office’s responsibilities at his age, the president has often responded as if he’s accepting a dare: “Watch me.”
Democratic candidates performed better than expected in the 2022 midterm elections, a testament to Biden’s message that he is defending democracy and elevating the middle class. Democrats expanded their control of the Senate by one seat and narrowly lost their House majority even though history indicated there would be a Republican wave.
Overall, 41% approve of how Biden is handling his job as president, the poll shows, similar to ratings at the end of last year. A majority of Democrats still approve of the job Biden is doing as president, yet their appetite for a reelection campaign has slipped despite his electoral track record. Only 22% of U.S. adults overall say he should run again, down from 29% who said so before last year’s midterm elections.
The decline among Democrats saying Biden should run again for president appears concentrated among younger people. Among Democrats age 45 and over, 49% say Biden should run for reelection, nearly as many as the 58% who said that in October. But among those under age 45, 23% now say he should run for reelection, after 45% said that before the midterms.
Linda Lockwood, a Democrat and retiree from Kansas City, Kansas, said she is not that worried about Biden’s age.
“He seems to be in pretty good condition in my opinion and that’s coming from a 76-year-old woman,” Lockwood said. “You might be a little more careful going down the steps as you get older, but if your brain is still working, that’s the important part.”
Already the oldest president in U.S. history, Biden has been dogged by questions about his age as he would be 86 if he serves a full eight years as president. He often works long days, standing for hours, remembering the names of strangers he meets while traveling who want to share a story about their lives with him.
Yet he’s been a national political figure for a half-century, having first been elected to the Senate from Delaware in 1972, and the moments when he appears lost on stage or stumbles through speeches can garner more attention than his policies.
On CNN on Sunday, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who sought the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020, acknowledged that “generational arguments can be powerful.”
“The most powerful argument of all is results,” said Buttigieg, 41. “And you can’t argue — at least, I would say you can’t argue with a straight face that it isn’t a good thing that we have had 12 million jobs created under this president.”
Voters like Ross Truckey, 35, have been watching the president carefully. A lawyer in Michigan, Truckey did not vote for Biden or Republican Donald Trump in 2020. He feels as though Biden has been the latest in a string of “subpar” presidents.
“His age and possibly his mental acuity is not where I would want the leader of the country to be,” Truckey said. “He, at times, appears to be an old man who is past his prime. Sometimes I feel a little bit of pity for the guy being pushed out in front of crowds.”
Biden has repeatedly emphasized in speeches that it’s essential for the public to know the totality of what his administration is doing. It’s notched four big legislative victories with coronavirus relief, the bipartisan infrastructure law, the CHIPS and Science Act, and tax and spending measures that help to address climate change and improve the IRS’ ability to enforce the tax code and help taxpayers.
Yet just 13% have a lot of confidence in Biden’s ability to accomplish major policy goals, a possible reflection of the fact that he must now work with a Republican majority in the House that wants to cut spending in return for lifting the government’s legal borrowing authority.
The poll also shows only 23% of U.S. adults say they have “a great deal” of confidence in Biden to effectively manage the White House. That has ticked down from 28% a year ago and remains significantly lower than 44% two years ago, just as Biden took office.
Just 21% have a lot of confidence in Biden’s ability to handle a crisis, down slightly from 26% last March.
On working with congressional Republicans and managing government spending, roughly half of U.S. adults say they have hardly any confidence in the president, and only around 1 in 10 say they have high confidence.
Republican voters are unwilling to give Biden the benefit of the doubt, hurting his ratings.
John Rodriguez, 76, backed Trump and assumes that Biden is merely doing the bidding of his aides. That creates a challenge for a president who promised to unite the country.
“I believe he’s not the one who’s calling the shots,” said Rodriguez, who lives in Cutler Bay, Florida. “He’s a puppet being told where to go, what to say.”
But the key obstacle for Biden might be voters such as Vikram Joglekar, 46, who works in the computer industry in Austin, Texas. He backed the president in 2020, only to summarize his feelings about Biden’s time in office as “meh.”
“It’s not up for me to decide whether someone should run or not,” Joglekar said. “I don’t know who is going to be on the ballot, but I would hope it would be someone better from his party.”
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The poll of 1,068 adults was conducted Jan. 26-30 using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.
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