AUGUST 12, 2024, UPDATE:
The Crop Production report issued Monday (Aug. 12, 2024) by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service forecasted corn production down from 2023 and soybean production up from last year. Corn production is down 1% from last year, forecast at 15.1 billion bushels; soybean growers are expected to increase their production 10% from 2023, forecast at a record high 4.59 billion bushels.
Average corn yield is forecast at record high 183.1 bushels per acre, up 5.8 bushels from last year. NASS also forecasts record high yields in Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, Michigan, Nebraska, South Dakota, Washington, and Wisconsin. As of Aug. 4, 67% of this year’s corn crop was reported in good or excellent condition, 10 percentage points above the same time last year.
Soybean yields are expected to average a record high 53.2 bushels per acre, up 2.6 bushels from 2023. If realized, the forecasted yields in Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Ohio will be record highs.
All wheat production is forecast at 1.98 billion bushels, up 9% from 2023. Growers are expected to produce 1.36 billion bushels of winter wheat this year, up 1% from the previous forecast and up 9% from last year. Durum wheat production is forecast at 76.9 million bushels, up 30% from 2023. All other spring wheat production is forecast at 544 million bushels, up 8% from last year. Based on Aug. 1 conditions, the U.S. all wheat yield is forecast at 52.2 bushels per acre, up 3.6 bushels from 2023.
The report also included the first NASS production forecast of the season for U.S. cotton. NASS forecasts all cotton production at 15.1 million 480-pound bales, up 25% from last year. Yield is expected to average 840 pounds per harvested acre, down 59 pounds from 2023.
NASS interviewed approximately 14,200 producers across the country in preparation for this report. NASS is now gearing up to conduct its September Agricultural Survey, which will collect final acreage, yield, and production information for wheat, barley, oats, and rye as well as grains and oilseeds stored on farms across the nation. That survey will take place during the first two weeks of September.
The Crop Production report is published monthly and is available online at www.nass.usda.gov/Publications
AUGUST 12, 2024:
Lance Honig, Chair of the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board, says there seems to be some confusion about a heads-up that USDA gave to commodities traders. The agency issued a notice reminding them acreage updates for corn and soybeans could come in the August reports that are due on Monday, August 12, 2024. Some traders took this to mean changes are coming, but Honig says that’s not necessarily the case. He said the heads-up was intended to be a process reminder.
“It’s the same process we’ve been using for years,” he notes. “It’s just coming earlier as the processing improvements in the Farm Service Agency’s reporting have made the planting data more complete quicker than in the past.”
The Chair of the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board says while the FSA data is highly valuable for planted acreage numbers, it is of very limited value for harvested acreage at this point in the season.
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