USDA Chief Economist Seth Meyer sees no immediate price shocks to rescue producers from another year of low prices in 2025. Meyer summed up the outlook for the new year this way.
“We haven’t seen a shock that would lead prices higher, so we continue to grind lower most of the year. And so, we’re kind of looking for a bottom and looking to where we go from here.”
And without another ‘black swan’ event globally, Meyer says the commodity picture in the United States remains mixed.
“Overall, crops have fared worse, and livestock fared better from an income standpoint, but not without some other issues.”
That’s limiting market expansion.
But generally, Meyer paints a grim picture.
“We’re seeing commodity prices which have fallen pretty fast, pretty far, pretty quickly, but not all the input prices have done the same. And that’s kind of where we end up with these tighter margins.”
As the new year begins, USDA’s Chief Economist thinks any hope for farm relief rests on some change happening globally.
“When you look around the world, I think that’s why we’re taking such a close look at South American production, Russian wheat production, etc. The market seems to be satisfied with where supplies are at the moment.”
Meyer says one potential shock to farm prices could be new tariffs implemented by the incoming Trump administration.
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