July 29, 2025:
The July Cattle on Feed Report offered little relief to customers paying higher prices for beef. That’s despite the cycle of herd liquidation that seems to be slowly ending. There were 94.2 million cattle and calves in the U.S. as of July 1, the lowest mid-year number of cattle since 1973. The USDA also said the number of animals placed in feedlots for weight gain before being sent to packers plunged to its lowest level since 2017. Bloomberg said a severe shortage in the world’s largest beef-producing country has sent cattle costs soaring, wiping out billions in profits for packers and driving record-high beef prices in U.S. grocery stores. Dr. Derrell Peel at Oklahoma State University says the latest USDA numbers offer little indication of herd rebuilding or, at least, it’s not very aggressive so far. “The number of heifers in feedlots remained mostly stable,” Peel told Bloomberg.
June 30, 2025:
U.S. ranchers are moving to expand their herds from a seven-decade low, paving the way for a long-awaited recovery in beef supplies, according to top producer JBS NV.
Wesley Batista Filho, chief executive officer of the Brazilian company’s North American business, said in an interview, “We are into herd rebuild right now. The economic incentives are there, the weather is helping.” That’s much-needed news for both meatpackers and consumers. A severe shortage in the world’s largest producer has sent cattle costs surging, wiping out billions in profits for companies such as JBS, Cargill Inc. and Tyson Foods Inc., while driving record beef prices at grocery stores. The move is backed up by a recent reduction in the number of female cows being sent to slaughter, which indicates more of them are being held for procreation, according to Batista. Still, it will take years for cattle supplies to recover, with no meaningful increase expected before 2027.
June 13, 2025:
The cattle herd rebuilding in the United States may finally be gaining traction. That, according to Randy Blach, CEO of CattleFax.
“We’re still in tight fed cattle supplies. We’ve got more hooks than we have cattle to fill those hooks, and we see that not only at the fed cattle level but also at the non-fed level as well. So, non-fed slaughter, non-fed cow, and bull slaughter has declined significantly, as you would expect. So, we’re stabilizing the herd from a lack of harvest of the cows.”
Blach said he’s seeing herd expansion, but it’s happening gradually.
“It does look like when we look back, January of 2025 will be the low in the beef cow herd. So, as I look at the numbers out here, I think it’s important that people recognize that our per capita beef supplies are pretty flat. They haven’t changed much. This price increase that we’re experiencing in the industry is demand-driven. Beef demand is at a 37-year high, and I think when people think about demand, obviously quality has been the key to that. We’ve seen the quality of the animals being produced has increased substantially.”
U.S. Meat Export Federation President and CEO Dan Halstrom said the strong global demand shows the industry needs to remain focused on the long term.
Story courtesy of the National Association of Farm Broadcasting.
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