By Todd Epp, Northern Plains News
As the 2025 seasons kick off Thursday, Aug. 28, 2025, the Missouri Valley Football Conference and the Northern Sun Intercollegiate Conference offer different reads on preseason poll predictiveness.
A 10-year review finds the MVFC favorite is usually a good bet for the regular-season crown, while the NSIC’s favorite is far less reliable. The MVFC pick hits seven times in 10 played seasons; the NSIC pick hits once in the last five.
Context matters: the MVFC competes in NCAA Division I FCS, and the NSIC competes in NCAA Division II.
MVFC Polls: Largely Predictive
In the MVFC, the preseason No. 1 often becomes champion or co-champion. North Dakota State and South Dakota State drive that record. The league’s 2024 standings show tri-champions North Dakota State, South Dakota State, and South Dakota at 7-1.
The misses cluster around the pandemic period. In spring 2021, South Dakota State, North Dakota, and Missouri State shared the title. In fall 2021, South Dakota State opened as the favorite, but North Dakota State won. In 2022, North Dakota State was picked first, and South Dakota State finished 8-0 in league play.
NSIC Polls: More of a Toss-up
The NSIC tells a different story. Since 2019, the favorite converted only once. Minnesota State won as a preseason No. 1 in 2019. The favorite missed in 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024, including back‑to‑back titles by Augustana.
For 2025, the MVFC’s panel of head coaches, communications directors, and media picks North Dakota State first, South Dakota State second, and South Dakota third.
In the NSIC’s 2025 coaches’ poll, Minnesota State is the favorite, followed by Augustana, Minnesota Duluth, and Bemidji State.
Why the Difference: Big Dogs in the MVFC Continually Dominate
Why the gap? Concentrated power reduces error. With the title race running through Fargo and Brookings, the MVFC’s top line tends to track the trophy. Parity among five or six programs makes the NSIC harder to forecast.
Methodology: Northern Plains News compared each league’s official preseason poll with final regular‑season standings for the same year. A “hit” means the preseason No. 1 won or shared the title. The MVFC poll is voted on by coaches, SIDs/communications directors, and select media; the NSIC poll is coaches‑only. The NSIC canceled 2020; the MVFC’s spring 2021 slate is treated as the 2020–21 season.
Sources: official releases and standings from valley‑football.org and northernsun.org; 2025 MVFC predicted order of finish (July 17, 2025); 2025 NSIC football coaches’ poll (July 31, 2025).
A 10‑year review By Northern Plains News finds the Missouri Valley Football Conference preseason favorite usually matches the champion, while the Northern Sun’s favorite is mixed.
In the Valley, the No. 1 pick hit seven of 10 played seasons, driven by North Dakota State and South Dakota State. In the Northern Sun, the favorite has hit once in the last five seasons as parity shuffled the top tier.
For 2025, voters pick North Dakota State in the MVFC, and coaches pick Minnesota State in the NSIC. Both leagues open Thursday, Aug. 28.
Northern Plains News finds that the Missouri Valley Football Conference pre-season polls through the last decade are strong at predicting winners. Preseason polls for the Northern Sun Intercollegiate Conference are mixed.
The 2025 picks are NDSU in the MVFC; Minnesota State in the NSIC.
Seasons start Thursday, Aug. 28.
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