In only its second year, the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff is already revealing major flaws, especially with how this season’s playoffs are unfolding, which leads to the question…was this new format really necessary?
The Controversial Shift From The Four-Team Playoff Format
The move away from the four-team format was controversial from the start. Many fans preferred the old system because every game felt like a playoff game.
Take Texas A&M as an example: in the four-team era, last weekend’s loss to Texas would have effectively eliminated them from playoff contention. The stakes used to be so high that one loss could take you out of the playoffs completely. That urgency has faded under the new format.
Another strength of the four-team format was the relevance of bowl games. These games once carried pride and meaning for strong teams outside of the elite, but with the expanded playoffs dominating postseason attention, non-playoff bowl games now lose their relevance.
The Texas Argument: How Much Does Strength Of Schedule Mean
One of the big selling points for expansion was the belief that teams would schedule tougher opponents because they could afford a loss or two. But Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian made a great point following the end of their regular season this past weekend.
After Texas beat Texas A&M, Sarkisian highlighted that Texas is the first team since LSU in 2019 to beat three top 10 teams in one season. He also noted that if Texas hadn’t scheduled defending national champion Ohio State in week one, then they would likely be a no-doubt playoff team right now. Instead, they’re sitting on the outside looking in on most projected brackets.
And he has a point. Texas played the eighth hardest schedule in the country. Compare that to Indiana at 45th or Ohio State at 46th. Of the 12 teams in last week’s projected playoff field, only four were in the top 25 strength of schedule.
So yes, Texas appears to be getting punished for doing exactly what the expanded playoff was supposed to encourage.
How Does This System Treat Bad Losses
To be fair to the selection committee, Texas did have a bad loss early in their season to Florida. That alone could keep them out. But using one loss to define a team is tricky. Notre Dame reached last year’s national championship despite losing to Northern Illinois early in the season. Texas has the resume to compete, and they would be a better national championship contender than many of the teams currently in the projected playoffs.
Automatic Bids Are Not Working
One of the most problematic rules is the automatic bid for the top five conference champions. The intention was to lock in the four power conference champions plus the top Group of Five champion. At least that was the idea, but this year might completely derail that thought.
The first thing we have to look at is the fact that Group of Five teams aren’t really national championship contenders. Last season’s example is Boise State: one loss all year, a Heisman runner-up in Ashton Jeanty, and blowout wins across their schedule. Yet they still lost to Penn State 31–14 in their first playoff game.
This year, the AAC champion, which will either be Tulane or North Texas, will get the Group of Five spot. Tulane played the 78th hardest schedule, and North Texas played the 125th hardest schedule. Either team would be a massive long shot to win a national championship.
Why should one of them get a guaranteed spot over a team like Texas or Miami that can legitimately contend for a national title?
Well, the ACC might make that situation even worse. Because of a bizarre tiebreaker, the ACC championship game is number 18 Virginia vs. 7-5 Duke. If Duke wins, they wouldn’t be anywhere close to being ranked high enough for an automatic bid, which would likely push Sun Belt champion favorite James Madison into the fifth automatic playoff bid. There is a very realistic scenario where no ACC team makes the playoff, and two Group of Five teams do.
Ole Miss Lost Their Head Coach Because Of The New Transfer Window
The new transfer window, which is just 15 days in mid-January, was designed to prevent portal chaos during bowl season. Instead, it has forced schools to hire coaches earlier, so they’re in place before the window opens.
This has directly impacted playoff contender Ole Miss. Head Coach Lane Kiffin accepted the LSU job this past weekend, meaning he is no longer their head coach. Kiffin expressed interest in finishing the season with Ole Miss but is not being allowed to coach in the playoffs by the Ole Miss athletic director. Not only do the Rebels lose Kiffin, but most of his offensive staff are leaving with him.
So now Ole Miss is entering their first-ever playoff run missing key coaches and facing inevitable player departures when players jump into the portal trying to follow their former coach to LSU. A team that very realistically could have made a title run this season now will need a miracle to do so.
How Can This Be Fixed
The 12-team format isn’t going anywhere; it makes too much money for them to give up on it, but this season has highlighted the glaring issues that need to be fixed:
- Coaches must be allowed to finish their seasons. Either move the portal window back, or split it into two again.
- Let the Group of Five teams in if they earn it, but don’t gift them spots over stronger Power Four teams. The best 12 teams in the country should get in.
- The committee should have defined metrics such as conference record, strength of schedule, and strength of wins, rather than subjective weekly rankings. Teams like Texas deserve clarity, and right now there has been no explanation for why strong resumes are being overlooked.
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