The U.S. Department of Agriculture released its initial 2026 farm income forecast and as expected, it showed a further decline in overall farm income, offset only by government payments.
USDA Economist Carrie Litkowski says the short-term measurement of net cash farm income is a bit brighter, but not longer-term net farm income.
“Net cash farm income is forecast at 158.5 billion dollars, which is an increase of about $4.6 billion or three percent from 2025. Net farm income is forecast to fall $1.2 billion, or almost one percent.”
Litkowski says contributing to the decline is a fall-off in receipts from commodity sales.
“Cash receipts from commodity sales are forecast to fall $14 billion dollars or almost three percent in 2026, and government payments are forecast to increase by about $14 billion dollars in 2026.”
Meantime, Litkowski says farm expenses continue to rise.
“Total production expenses are forecast to increase almost $5 billion dollars, or one percent.”
Litkowski says farm household income from all sources is still forecast up slightly this year.
“Median total farm household income in 2026 is forecast at $113-thousand dollars, approximately, an increase of about five percent.”
USDA’s research shows most farm families have at least one member working off-farm jobs, with the percentage as high as 91 percent in recent years. As farm losses continue to worsen, policymakers are pushing for more markets in trade deals and at home in biofuels.
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