Miami’s playoff hopes took an all-but-final nosedive while Alabama’s got a boost Tuesday night in the last rankings before the 12-team College Football Playoff bracket is set next weekend.
The Hurricanes (10-2) moved down six spots to No. 12 — the first team out of the projected bracket after suffering their second loss of the season. They are one spot behind the Crimson Tide (9-3), who won last week and moved up two spots to No. 11, where they are projected as the last team in and the fourth from the Southeastern Conference.
To make things worse for the ’Canes, selection committee chair and Michigan athletic director Warde Manuel said there was no way for them to leapfrog Alabama since neither team plays next weekend. The odds of them moving up based on lopsided results in the weekend’s conference title games are virtually zero.
The Miami-Alabama sorting was the strongest indication yet that the selection committee is looking at more than mere wins and losses, but also at strength of schedule and other factors that appear to give the SEC an edge.
“We still think Miami is a very strong team,” Manuel said. “It came down to a difference in their body of work … not just wins, not just losses but the totality of the season and how those teams performed.”
He mentioned three key data points: Alabama was 3-1 against current Top 25 teams and Miami is 0-1; Alabama is 6-1 against winning teams while Miami is 4-2; and Miami has lost two of its last three games.
Oregon stayed at No. 1 for the fifth straight week and will head into Saturday’s Big Ten title game against Penn State as the only undefeated team in big-time college football.
The pairings for college football’s first 12-team playoff will be set Sunday, the day after the conference title games. The playoffs start Dec. 20, with the title game set for Jan. 20 in Atlanta.
Ohio State moved down four spots to No. 6 after its loss to Michigan.
That bumped Texas up a spot to No. 2, Penn State to No. 3, Notre Dame to No. 4 and Georgia to No. 5.
The selection committee all but designated the Big 12 as a one-bid league, moving Arizona State and Iowa State up only one spot each to Nos. 15 and 16.
The top five ranked conference champions are guaranteed bids, which means the winner of the Big 12 title game is in even it doesn’t reach the top 12 — another factor in Miami’s likely ouster.
SMU, on a nine-game winning streak, moved up a notch to No. 8 and is the Atlantic Coast Conference’s highest-ranked team, but is still potentially vulnerable if it loses the title game to No. 17 Clemson.
The crux of this week’s drama comes from — where else? — the SEC.
Alabama is only two weeks removed from an ugly 24-3 loss at Oklahoma. The Tide still got better treatment than Miami, which fell 42-38 at Syracuse last week with a spot in the ACC title game at stake.
Also in the SEC, Mississippi was ranked 13th and South Carolina 14th — answering a question of just how deep into the SEC pool the committee was willing to go. Neither team has another chance to build its resume.
Other rankings: No. 7 Tennessee, No. 9 Indiana and No. 10 Boise State. The projected bracket includes four teams each from the Big Ten and SEC and one each from the ACC, Mountain West and Big 12, plus independent Notre Dame.
This week’s key games
SEC: This will be awkward for the loser of Texas vs. Georgia. The Longhorns are perched too high to miss the playoff, though a loss would make them 0-2 vs. Georgia and 11-0 against everyone else, and they also have the conference’s easiest schedule. For Georgia, it would be a third loss, but the committee doesn’t seem likely to punish the Bulldogs for playing in the title game.
Big 12, Mountain West: The winner of ASU-Iowa State is still likely outside of the group of four conference champs that receive first-round byes unless UNLV upsets Boise State.
ACC: If Clemson beats SMU, it puts the 17th-ranked team in the bracket and makes the ACC a potential snub for the second straight year. (Remember Florida State last season?)
Projected first-round matchups
Based on this week’s rankings. Teams listed by seed.
No. 12 Arizona State at No. 5 Penn State: This game between two teams nobody wants to play right now highlights the obvious benefits of avoiding the first round — which is still possible for both.
No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Ohio State: What could be worse for Ohio State fans than hearing “Rocky Top” blaring through their home stadium after a loss?
No. 11 Alabama at No. 6 Notre Dame: Bear Bryant went 0-4 vs. the Fighting Irish. Alabama won both 21st-century matchups in the playoffs.
No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Georgia: The Hoosiers’ welcome to the big time would come between the hedges.
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