Eggs, a barometer of food inflation, were a ‘hot topic’ at last month’s (Feb. 27-28, 2025) U.S. Department of Agriculture Ag Outlook Forum.
USDA Chief Economist Seth Meyer said consumers and politicians, both, are paying close attention after repeated bird flu outbreaks in the country have pushed prices up…. topping $7 a dozen in some places.
“We have experienced repeated HPAI events over about the last 18 months, which have cut the size of that layer flock and not provided an opportunity to rebuild that flock.”
Meyer said the U.S. bird flock is greatly diminished.
“I believe the latest number was now sub-300 million layers. I think it was 291. That is a very low number. To put it in context, we might like to be at something more like 320, 325 million layers.”
Meyer said that lead to egg price inflation, which he mostly blamed for overall food price inflation.
“And the size of the square tells you the contribution to food price inflation over the year. That egg box is half. And so, if you went out under the right graph and you said that green line, that uptick in the green, it’s basically eggs.”
Since USDA’s February 2025 forecast, Meyer says the U.S. has lost about 7.5 million-layer birds, but can only add four to six million back into the flock each month. Bottom line—Meyer says egg prices will stay high for at least a “little while longer.”
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