After a tariff war stalled trade for months, Reuters said shipments of U.S. crops headed to China are picking up in number. At least six large cargo vessels are scheduled to fill up with soybeans at Gulf Coast terminals through mid-December. A shipping schedule that was seen by Reuters last week said a seventh U.S. soybean cargo was loaded during the previous weekend and is already headed to China, the first shipment since May. While the White House announced that China agreed to buy 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans by the end of this month, Beijing has yet to confirm any details about potential promises to purchase large volumes of U.S. soybeans. USDA data said Chinese importers booked nearly two million metric tons of U.S. soybeans last month for delivery in the 2025-2026 marketing year that ends in August 2026. U.S. sorghum shipments have also restarted to China.
Commodity experts and ag economists appear split on whether China will actually buy 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans by the end of 2025. Bloomberg said the pledge is underscoring a wider hope in the market that the fragile trade truce can hold on. Traders said commercial and state-owned importers like COFCO (KOFF-coh) will take more shipments in the weeks ahead. Farm Journal’s November Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor said more than 75 percent of economists surveyed say China won’t purchase that amount of soybeans this year. Only 24 percent think they will. Arlan Suderman, the chief commodities economist at StoneX, said the market is assuming something less than the full 12 million metric ton pledge. “I think the market has priced in expectations of eight to ten million metric tons, and they’ll take it during the marketing year between now and the end of August,” Suderman told Farm Journal.
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