It’s been a confusing college football season so far. Nobody felt that more deeply than the College Football Playoff selection committee, which raised eyebrows aplenty in its first attempt of the season to make sense of it all.
Undefeated Miami received top billing in the committee’s opening crack at the CFP rankings Tuesday, followed by Georgia (7-1) and undefeated Utah.
From there, the 13 people in that room could have been picking from a hat. Defending champion Indiana (8-1) was ranked fourth — eight spots ahead of Ohio State (6-2), which beat the Hoosiers 19-15 last month but has since lost quarterback Julian Sayin (to say nothing of another game).
At No. 5 was Alabama (6-2) — eight spots ahead of Tennessee (6-2), even though the Tide is only a few weeks removed from a 16-point loss to the Vols. At No. 6 was Kentucky (7-1), followed by Texas (6-2).
UCLA, the nation’s only other undefeated team, was ranked eighth.
Oh, and Notre Dame. The Irish (7-1) were ranked 11th — seven spots lower than their spot in the AP Top 25 — and that ranking brought with it a simple message: As the last team that would make the bracket if the playoffs started today, they need to beat Miami on Saturday or risk slipping due to a schedule that clearly did not impress the committee.
“A very, very good football team,” committee chair Hunter Yurachek said of Notre Dame. “But when you look at Notre Dame’s schedule and the wins they have versus the teams ahead of them, they don’t have that signature win right now.”
In fact, Notre Dame’s biggest game so far resulted in its only loss — 28-24 at BYU on Oct. 17.
Ohio State was ranked 12th, but would be on the outside looking in because Boise State, ranked 25th, would get the Group of Six automatic bid.
It would have been easy — maybe too easy — to blame the Buckeyes tumble on the fact that their offense is now in the hands of a freshman quarterback, Luke Fahey. But Yurachek said the committee was more concerned with Ohio State’s defense in its 30-18 loss to a 20th-ranked USC team that hasn’t impressed anyone so far.
Regarding the gap between the Hoosiers and Buckeyes — and the Crimson Tide and Volunteers — Yurachek brought up a blast from last year that confused most everyone and played heavily into Miami making the final field and Notre Dame not: Head-to-head matchups don’t come into play unless the teams are in the same four-team “pod,” i.e., 1-4, 5-8, 9-12.
“Yes, they had that loss to Tennessee,” Yurachek said of the Tide. “But Tennessee doesn’t have that same level of quality wins. Yes, they beat Alabama, but you have to go deeper” to find Tennessee’s next-best win. Maybe it will come Saturday against Kentucky.
Meanwhile, Yurachek said, the Tide got lots of love in the selection room for a win against Mississippi State in September before the Bulldogs disintegrated with the injury to QB Kamario Taylor. Mississippi State is currently 2-4.
This is the first of six rankings that will be revealed — one every Tuesday until the brackets are set on Sunday, Dec. 6. The playoffs start with four games on the campus of seeds 5-8 on Dec. 18-19. The final is Jan. 25 in Las Vegas.
Big games Saturday will reshuffle the deck
In addition to Miami-Notre Dame, key games this week include BYU at Utah for a leg up in the Big 12 race. Alabama visits No. 14 LSU in a game that will hand one contender its third loss. Also, the Kentucky-Tennessee game will either hand the Wildcats their second loss or the Vols their third.
Among the biggest questions was how the selection committee would treat the SEC, which features six teams with two losses, two with one loss and no undefeateds, but also accounts for 13 of the nation’s current 20 toughest schedules.
Answer: a nation-leading 10 of its teams made the list of 25, even if the way they were positioned raised eyebrows.
“This has been such a crazy football season, filled with unbelievable parity through the first eight weeks,” Yurachek said. “But you look at the matchups this weekend. We believe as a committee there will be a significant amount of movement within the entire top-25 ranking.”
Also, the SEC’s gain was the ACC’s loss. The next ACC team after Miami was Wake Forest, ranked 16th. The Demon Deacons have only one loss, to the Hurricanes themselves, but can control their fate by winning their way to a rematch with Miami in the title game.
The projected matchups
If the playoffs were today:
No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Alabama: Boise State’s most fantastic win ever was a 43-42 stunner over Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl.
No. 11 Notre Dame at No. 6 Kentucky: Playoff football in the Bluegrass State? These programs have never met.
No. 10. Ole Miss at No. 7 Texas: Longhorns beat Rebels 31-24 on Oct. 24.
No. 9 BYU at No. 8 UCLA: First meeting was in 1983, Steve Young vs. Steve Bono and 1,020 yards in total offense.
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