CZ Cattle Market Analytics analyst Ed Czerwien from Amarillo, TX, provides the following fed cattle and boxed beef recaps for the week ending May 1, 2021.
Fed cattle recap:
The feedlot cattle trades for WE May 01 were 1 to 3 lower, and the cash sales volume was about the same as the previous week but very big numbers of forward contracts and 15-30 day delivery are used now.
The Five-area formula sales volume totaled 232,998 head compared to about 240,000 the previous week. The Five-area total cash steer and heifer volume was 58,280 head compared to about 57,600 head the previous week.
Nationally reported forward contracted cattle harvested was over 80,000 head this week and packers had 275,000 head for April along with 247,000 head for May. The nationally reported 15-30 day delivery purchases this week were 24,235 head along with 30,000-40,000 head for many previous week. The packers already have 90,000-120,000 head each week when you add the 15-30 day and forward contracts.
Now looking at the prices. The weekly weighted average cash steer price for the five-area region was $118.89, which was $2.47 lower compared to the previous week and last year the same week it was $98.53 which was about $1.84 higher that week last year. The same week in 2015 it was $160.69 even though the daily Choice cutout now was 40 dollars higher than 2015
This week the current five area weighted average live steer formula price was $122.78 this week and the live formula heifer price was $124.08.
The weighted average Five-area cash dressed steer price was $190.44 which was $1.67 lower. The five-area weighted average formula price which is steers and heifers was $194.26 which was $0.77 lower.
The estimated weekly total FIS cattle harvest was reported at 649,000 head and compared to 439,000 head the same week last year which was when the packing plants were shut down for the medical epidemic.
The latest average National steer carcass weight for WE Apr 17 was 898 lbs which was 2 lbs lower than the previous week and compared to 889 lbs the same week last year which was 3 lbs higher than the previous week last year.
Choice-Select spread on Friday Apr 30 was at 13.45 compared to 11.64 the previous week and that compared to 20.32 spread last year.
Boxed beef recap:
Weekly boxed beef trade recap for week ending May 01
The daily spot Choice box beef cutout ended the week on Friday Apr 30 at $296.50 which was $12.73 higher compared to previous Friday. Last year it was $377.45 on the same Friday which was $84.08 higher then it continued jumping much higher during the packing plant shutdowns. However in 2015 it was $256.90 the same Friday so, it is now about $40 higher than 2015 when fat cattle prices were much higher than they are now.
The end of this week the daily Choice Chuck and Round primal were 7 to 9 higher but still much lower than last year. The daily Choice Rib and Loin primal were 19 to 24 higher which is still normal during the grilling season.
The weekly total for the daily cutout was 525 loads and about 8 % of the weekly total loads sold.
The weekly average Choice cutout which includes all types of sales including the daily Choice cutout was 280.49 which was $8.27 higher.
The total sales were 6497 total loads sold for the week which was 211 loads lower than the previous week.
The out-front sales which get delivered after 21 days were 1154 loads which was 234 loads lower than last week.
The exports as reported on the Box Beef report were 755 loads which was 273 loads lower compared to the previous week and a typical drop in volume when prices continue to skyrocket higher. This week 122 loads were sold to our NAFTA neighbors and 633 loads were going overseas
Formula sales were at 3567 loads which was 86 loads lower than last week and about 55 percent of the total loads sold this week.
Taking a look at the major primal cuts which impact the cutout value and the weekly average numbers include all of the different types of sales. The weekly average Choice Chuck and Round primal were 2 to 5 higher and both are lower than last year during the panic buying but higher than previous normal years yet.
The weekly average Choice Rib primal and the Choice Loin were 13 to 19 higher which really helped the cutout get much higher again which is normal during the grilling season.
The daily cow cutout ended the week on Friday April 30 was $ 1.00 higher at 197.89 and the 90% trimmings were at 244.01 which was $ 2.35 higher compared to the previous Friday.
The latest report of Imported meat passed for entry into the U.S. for week ending Apr 24 showed 21,913 metric tons of fresh beef which was about 100 higher than the previous week and about 200 higher than last year. The year to date total for these imports is 9 % lower than last year. The top 4 countries are Canada which is number one and is 7 % higher than last year, Mexico is the second highest but 6 % lower than last year, New Zealand is 2 % lower, and Australia which is 45 % lower.
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