The updated 2022 calendar year runoff forecast for the upper Missouri River Basin (above Sioux City, Iowa) continues to be below average.
Chief of the US Army Corps of Engineers’ Missouri River Basin Water Management Division John Remus says despite January’s runoff being slightly above average, they expect 2022 runoff to remain below average. He says both plains snowpack and mountain snowpack continue to lag behind seasonal averages, and soil moisture continues to be much drier-than-normal.
January 2022 runoff in the upper Basin was 111% of average (or 0.9 million acre-feet) due to warmer-than-normal temperatures. Precipitation in January was below normal for most of the upper Basin except for central North Dakota, which saw above-normal precipitation.
The 2022 calendar year runoff forecast for the upper Basin is 84% of average (or 21.7 MAF)– unchanged from January’s forecast. The runoff forecast is based on current soil moisture conditions, plains snowpack, mountain snowpack and long-term precipitation and temperature outlooks.
Releases from the Oahe Dam at Pierre/Fort Pierre averaged 16,000 cubic feet per second in January 2022. The forecast average release rate for this month is 12,200 cfs. At the end of January, the Oahe reservoir level was down 10.1 feet from December 2021 at 1596.9 feet. The Corps expects the level to rise slightly during February to a level of 1597.9 feet
Releases at Gavins Point Dam at Yankton will be maintained at the winter release rate of 12,000 cubic feet per second, but will be adjusted if needed in response to ice formation in the lower Missouri River Basin. Gavins Point Dam is the last place the Corps can control the flow of water from the upper Missouri River Basin into the lower Basin.
Remus says weather and river conditions will continue to be monitored throughout the winter months and adjustments will be made to System releases to help mitigate effects from the weather. He says the System has enough water to serve all Congressionally authorized purposes including flood control, navigation and water supply during 2022.
Mountain snowpack in the upper Missouri River Basin is accumulating at below-average rates. The Jan. 31, 2022, mountain snowpack in the Fort Peck reach was 87% of average, while the mountain snowpack in the Fort Peck to Garrison reach was 86% of average. By February 1, about 60% of the total mountain snowpack has typically accumulated. Mountain snowpack normally peaks near April 15. The mountain snowpack graphics can be viewed at: http://go.usa.gov/xARQC. Currently, plains snowpack in the upper Basin is very light.
The six mainstem power plants generated 618 million kWh of electricity in January 2022. Typical energy generation for January is 715 million kWh. The power plants are expected to generate 9.2 billion kWh this year, compared to the long-term average of 9.4 billion kWh.
To view the detailed three-week release forecast for the mainstem dams, go to https://go.usa.gov/xARQB.
The Missouri Basin Web App provides links to these reports and others that are updated more frequently. http://go.usa.gov/xE6fC.
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