Study Finds Hydrologic Models may be Inaccurate

A new study by the University of Illinois finds hydrologic models that simulate and predict water flow can be difficult to interpret correctly. The study focuses on the Soil and Water Assessment model, which simulates water circulation by incorporating data on land use, soil, topography, and climate. The models are typically used to estimate how natural systems respond to different scenarios, such as changes in climate, land use, and soil management. The input from the models can inform policy and regulatory decisions regarding water and land management practices. Model accuracy is important to ensure policy decisions are based on realistic scenarios. A researcher involved in the study says if the model is not representing reality, “you are going to draw the wrong conclusions.” And, wrong conclusions will lead to wrong policies, “which can greatly affect communities that rely on the water supply.” The researchers recommend using a combination model, which integrates two different processes to limit variability in results. Funding for the research was provided by the Department of Agriculture’s National Institute for Food and Agriculture.