CZ Cattle Market Analytics analyst Ed Czerwien from Amarillo, TX, provides the following fed cattle and boxed beef recaps for the week ending June 25, 2021.
Fed cattle recap:
The feedlot cattle trades for WE June 26 were mostly steady to 3 higher and the cash sales volume was lower than the previous week.
The Five-area formula sales volume totaled 230,942 head compared to about 244,000 the previous week. The Five-area total cash steer and heifer volume was 39,292 head compared to about 67,000 head the previous week.
Nationally reported forward contracted cattle harvested was about 43,000 head this week and packers have 194,000 head for June. The nationally reported 15-30 day delivery purchases this week were 16,133 head along with 17,000 head for the previous week.
Now looking at the prices. The weekly weighted average cash steer price for WE 06/26/21 for the five-area region was $125.47, which was $2.63 higher compared to the previous week and last year the same week it was $96.21 which was about $4.60 lower that week last year. The same week in 2015 it was $148.79 even though the daily Choice cutout now was still much higher. This week the current five area weighted average live steer formula price was $124.35 this week and the live formula heifer price was $123.21.
The weighted average Five-area cash dressed steer price was $197.98 which was $2.11 higher. The five-area weighted average formula price which is steers and heifers was $196.66 which was $2.11 higher.
The estimated weekly total FIS cattle harvest for week ending June 26 was reported at 661,000 head and compared to 665,000 head the same week last year.
The latest average National steer carcass weight for WE June 12 was 882 lbs which was 9 lbs lower than the previous week and compared to 896 lbs the same week last year which was 4 lbs higher than the previous week last year.
Choice-Select spread on Friday Jun 25 was at 28.38 compared to 39.67 the previous week and that compared to 8.32 spread last year.
Boxed beef recap:
The daily spot Choice box beef cutout ended the week on Friday June 25 at $304.56 which was $18.72 lower compared to previous Friday which is now $34 lower during the last few weeks and that is normal after the Father’s Day. However, it is still much higher than all previous years yet. Last year it was $207.17 on the same Friday, which was about $7 lower, so it had continued to drop and was about $157 lower in four weeks last year.
The end of this week the daily Choice Chuck and Round primal were $6 to $14 lower. The daily Choice Rib and Loin primal were $37 to $53 lower and Rib almost dropped $100 lower in two weeks which is normal now after the big grilling season rally is over. The steak products are already at the grocery stores for the Fourth of July holiday so no active buying lately which dropped the prices. Also, this is the time of the year with hot weather that always increases the grilling of hamburgers which is normal every year. Steaks continue to be grilled some but not as much of the volume that was used during the early grilling holidays. The weekly total for the daily cutout was 542 loads and about % of the weekly total loads sold.
The weekly average Choice cutout which includes all types of sales including the daily Choice cutout was 310.07 which was $11.97 lower. However, like previously said the weekly average is following the daily cutout slowly which is always normal because many but not all formula sales are priced off of the previous week’s daily spot prices. It still continues much higher than all years and even last year now.
The total sales were 6118 total loads sold for the week which was 304 loads lower than the previous week. The four-week moving average graph shows that the big price rally has pushed the sales volume lower since April which has not been good.
The out-front sales which get delivered after 21 days were 1028 loads which was 48 loads higher than last week.
The exports as reported on the Box Beef report were 866 loads which was 69 loads higher compared to the previous week. This week 110 loads were sold to our NAFTA neighbors and 756 loads were going overseas.
Formula sales were at 3343 loads which was 343 loads lower than last week and about 55 percent of the total loads sold this week. This week the formula sales included fewer lbs of Choice ribeye products and Choice loin strips so both dropped down to less than 2 million lbs which is much lower.
Taking a look at the major primal cuts which impact the cutout value and the weekly average numbers include all of the different types of sales. The weekly average Choice Chuck and Round primal were 3 to 7 lower but still higher than all previous years now. The weekly average Choice Rib was 37 lower and the Loin primal was 25 lower so the grilling season has topped out but they both will continue to drop lower following the big declines in the daily prices. They both have topped out this year higher than all years and no doubt helped by restaurants as well as grilling. The Rib and Loin products are always the main driving force in the grilling rally.
The daily cow cutout ended the week on Friday Jun 25 was $ 1.76 higher at $228.36 and the 90% trimmings were at $278.21 which was $ 0.99 higher compared to the previous Friday. The demand for hamburgers normally increases for grilling later in the summer during hot weather every year which is happening now. Also, this year continues to have more restaurants reopening so bigger sales of hamburgers. The slaughter cow volume usually drops much lower during the summer but not this year with more drought areas pushing more cows to slaughter.
The latest report of Imported meat passed for entry into the U.S. for week ending June 19 showed 23,663 metric tons of fresh beef which was about 1000 higher than the previous week and about 1500 lower than last year. The year to date total for these imports is 8 % lower than last year. The top 4 countries are Canada which is number one and is 11 % higher than last year, Mexico is the second highest but 11 % lower than last year, New Zealand is 3 % lower, and Australia which is 43 % lower.
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