CZ Cattle Market Analytics analyst Ed Czerwien from Amarillo, TX, provides the following fed cattle and boxed beef recaps for the week ending July 10, 2021.
Fed cattle recap:
The feedlot cattle trades for WE July 10 were steady to 2 lower and the cash sales volume was lower than the previous week mostly due to the holiday.
The Five-area formula sales volume totaled 206,279 head compared to about 243,000 the previous week. The Five-area total cash steer and heifer volume was 69,551 head compared to about 75,000 head the previous week.
Nationally reported forward contracted cattle harvested was about 30,000 head this week and packers have 193,000 head for July. The nationally reported 15-30 day delivery purchases this week were 27,898 head along with about 26,000 head for the previous week.
Now looking at the prices. The weekly weighted average cash steer price for WE 07/10/21 for the five-area region was $122.16, which was $1.73 lower compared to the previous week and last year the same week it was $95.98 which was about $1.10 higher that week last year. The same week in 2015 it was $151.00 even though the daily Choice cutout now was still 42 dollars higher. This week the current five area weighted average live steer formula price was $124.83 this week and the live formula heifer price was $125.95.
The weighted average Five-area cash dressed steer price was $198.33 which was $0.06 higher. The five-area weighted average formula price which is steers and heifers was $200.29 which was $0.24 higher.
The estimated weekly total FIS cattle harvest for week ending July 9 was reported at 582,000 head with the holiday shutdowns and compared to 649,000 head the same week last year.
The latest average National steer carcass weight for WE June 26 was 883 lbs which was 4 lbs higher than the previous week and compared to 896 lbs the same week last year which was 6 lbs higher than the previous week last year.
Choice-Select spread on Friday July 9 was at 21.18 compared to 21.03 the previous week and that compared to 10.21 spread last year.
Boxed beef recap:
The daily spot Choice box beef cutout ended the week on Friday July 09 at $278.59 which was $6.85 lower compared to previous Friday which is now about $59 lower during the last four weeks. However, it is still much higher than all previous years yet. Last year it was $204.50 on the same Friday, which was about $1 lower. During 2015 it was 236.98 on the same Friday so still about 42 dollars higher yet.
The end of this week the daily Choice Chuck and Round primal were both $5 lower. The daily Choice Rib and Loin primal were $5 to $8 lower and Rib dropped $171 lower in four weeks. The weekly total for the daily cutout was 517 loads and about 8 % of the weekly total loads sold.
The weekly average Choice cutout which includes all types of sales including the daily Choice cutout was 279.93 which was $9.57 lower.
The total sales were 6030 total loads sold for the week which was 9 loads lower than the previous week.
The out-front sales which get delivered after 21 days were 1063 loads which was 190 loads higher than last week. The largest out-front sales this week included about 1.7 million lbs of Choice Ribeye products that were 22 to 107 dollars per cwt lower priced than the same current formula prices and about 1.8 million lbs of Choice Brisket that was 70 dollars per cwt lower.
The exports as reported on the Box Beef report were 736 loads which was 166 loads higher compared to the previous week. This week 169 loads were sold to our NAFTA neighbors and 567 loads were going overseas.
Formula sales were at 3224 loads which was 145 loads lower than last week and about 53 percent of the total loads sold this week.
Taking a look at the major primal cuts which impact the cutout value and the weekly average numbers include all of the different types of sales. The weekly average Choice Chuck and Round primal were 5 to 9 lower but still higher than all previous years now. The weekly average Choice Rib was 17 lower and the Loin primal was 6 lower so they both will continue to drop lower following the declines in the daily prices.
The daily cow cutout ended the week on Friday July 9 was $ 0.24 higher at $230.24 and the 90% trimmings were at $281.88 which was $ 0.31 lower compared to the previous Friday.
The latest report of Imported meat passed for entry into the U.S. for week ending July 03 showed 25,275 metric tons of fresh beef which was about 2400 higher than the previous week and about 3500 higher than last year. The year to date total for these imports is 7 % lower than last year. The top 4 countries are Canada which is number one and is 10 % higher than last year, Mexico is the second highest but 10 % lower than last year, New Zealand is 2 % lower, and Australia which is 40 % lower.
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