CZ Cattle Market Analytics analyst Ed Czerwien from Amarillo, TX, provides the following fed cattle and boxed beef recaps for the week ending July 17, 2021.
Fed cattle recap:
The feedlot cattle trades for WE July 17 were mostly steady to 1 higher and the cash sales volume was lower than the previous week.
The Five-area formula sales volume totaled 242,371 head compared to about 206,000 the previous week. The Five-area total cash steer and heifer volume was 60,905 head compared to about 69,000 head the previous week.
Nationally reported forward contracted cattle harvested was about 49,000 head this week and packers have 193,000 head for July. The nationally reported 15-30 day delivery purchases this week were 28,662 head along with about 27,000 head for the previous week.
Now looking at the prices. The weekly weighted average cash steer price for the five-area region was $122.82, which was $0.66 higher compared to the previous week and last year the same week it was $96.36 which was about $0.40 higher that week last year. The same week in 2015 it was $147.96 even though the daily Choice cutout now was still 34 dollars higher. This week the current five area weighted average live steer formula price was $122.96 this week and the live formula heifer price was $124.83.
The weighted average Five-area cash dressed steer price was $197.80 which was $0.53 lower. The five-area weighted average formula price which is steers and heifers was $197.85 which was $2.44 lower.
The estimated weekly total FIS cattle harvest for week ending July 17 was reported at 653,000 head and compared to 646,000 head the same week last year. The year to date total is now about 800,000 head higher than last year.
The latest average National steer carcass weight for WE July 03 was 884 lbs which was 1 lbs higher than the previous week and compared to 896 lbs the same week last year which was the same as the previous week last year.
Choice-Select spread on Friday July 16 was at 16.15 compared to 21.18 the previous week and that compared to 10.16 spread last year.
Boxed beef recap:
The daily spot Choice box beef cutout ended the week on Friday July 16 at $267.94 which was $10.65 lower compared to previous Friday which is now about $70 lower during the last five weeks. However, it is still much higher than all previous years yet. Last year it was $200.47 on the same Friday, which was about $4 lower. During 2015 it was $233.30 on the same Friday so still about 34 dollars higher yet.
The end of this week the daily Choice Chuck and Round primal were $8 to $9 lower and they both have been creeping lower but still much higher than all previous years now. The daily Choice Rib was $10 higher and Loin primal was $35 lower but the Rib had already dropped about $170 lower in four weeks. The weekly total for the daily cutout was 722 loads and about 10 % of the weekly total loads sold.
The weekly average Choice cutout which includes all types of sales including the daily Choice cutout was 269.13 which was $10.80 lower but still a little higher than the daily cutout.
The total sales were 6991 total loads sold for the week which was 961 loads higher than the previous week and the biggest number in many weeks. The four-week moving average graph shows that the big grilling season price rally has pushed the sales volume lower since April which has not been good. When that happens there usually is a big price drop for a while which has happened lately.
The out-front sales which get delivered after 21 days were 1611 loads which was 548 loads higher than last week but included over 400 loads of forward contracts that can be delivered during a big portion of the year.
The exports as reported on the Box Beef report were 728 loads which was 8 loads lower compared to the previous week. This week 90 loads were sold to our NAFTA neighbors and 638 loads were going overseas.
Formula sales were at 3305 loads which was 81 loads higher than last week and about 47 percent of the total loads sold this week.
Taking a look at the major primal cuts which impact the cutout value and the weekly average numbers include all of the different types of sales. The weekly average Choice Chuck and Round primal were 4 to 6 lower but still higher than all previous years now which has stopped the cutout from dropping lower at a faster rate.
The weekly average Choice Rib was 8 lower and the Loin primal was 32 lower so they both continue to drop lower following the declines in the daily prices. They both are very close to the normal summer lows now after they both had topped out this year higher than all years and no doubt helped by restaurants as well as grilling. The Rib and Loin products are always the main driving force in the grilling rally. Also, this is the time of the year with hot weather that always increases the grilling of hamburgers which is normal every year. Steaks continue to be grilled some but not as much of the volume that was used during the early grilling holidays.
The daily cow cutout ended the week on Friday July 16 was $ 2.20 higher at $232.44 and the 90% trimmings were at $283.54 which was $1.66 higher compared to the previous Friday. The 90 percent trimming prices also have an impact on the Chuck and Round prices from finished cattle carcasses because both of those primals provide cuts that also go into ground beef. So, high 90 percent trimming prices pulls other ground beef type items into higher prices. That fact happened during 2014 when 90 percent trimming prices were near $300.00 per cwt much of the time which helped the Choice cutout get higher with a massive jump higher for the Chuck and Round. Also, this year continues to have more restaurants reopening so bigger sales of hamburgers which continues to help the 90 percent trimming prices along with Chuck and Round prices from finished cattle.
The latest report of Imported meat passed for entry into the U.S. for week ending July 10 showed 22,369 metric tons of fresh beef which was about 2900 lower than the previous week and about 3000 lower than last year. The year to date total for these imports is 7 % lower than last year so it continues to be much lower. The top 4 countries are Canada which is number one and is 9 % higher than last year, Mexico is the second highest but 10 % lower than last year, New Zealand is 2 % lower, and Australia which is 41 % lower.
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