CZ Cattle Market Analytics analyst Ed Czerwien from Amarillo, TX, provides the following fed cattle and boxed beef recaps for the week ending July 31, 2021.
Fed cattle recap:
The feedlot cattle trades for WE July 31 were mostly steady to 1 higher but some up to 3 higher and the cash sales volume was slightly lower than the previous week.
The Five-area formula sales volume totaled 229,044 head compared to about 245,000 the previous week. The Five-area total cash steer and heifer volume was 64,164 head compared to about 65,000 head the previous week.
Nationally reported forward contracted cattle harvested was about 54,000 head this week and packers had 193,000 head for July along with 150,000 head for August. The nationally reported 15-30 day delivery purchases this week were 21,869 head along with about 20,000 head for the previous week.
Now looking at the prices. The weekly weighted average cash steer price for WE 07/31/21 for the five-area region was $121.68, which was $0.91 higher compared to the previous week and last year the same week it was $98.66 which was about $1.40 higher that week last year. The same week in 2015 it was $147.37 even though the daily Choice cutout now was 45 dollars higher. This week the current five area weighted average live steer formula price was $122.43 and the live formula heifer price was $123.77.
The weighted average Five-area cash dressed steer price was $197.39 which was $0.61 higher. The five-area weighted average formula price which is steers and heifers was $195.83 which was $1.59 lower.
The estimated weekly total FIS cattle harvest for week ending July 31 was reported at 649,000 head and compared to 636,000 head the same week last year. The year to date total is now over 800,000 head higher than last year.
The latest average National steer carcass weight for WE July 17 was 888 lbs which was 3 lbs higher than the previous week and compared to 899 lbs the same week last year which 3 lbs lower than the previous week last year. The carcass weights are starting to follow the normal weight increases but lower than last year and similar to previous normal years.
Choice-Select spread on Friday July 30 was at 19.27 compared to 16.69 the previous week and that compared to 13.37 spread last year.
Boxed beef recap:
The daily spot Choice box beef cutout ended the week on Friday July 30 at $278.46 which was $11.83 higher compared to previous Friday. However, it is still much higher than all previous years yet. Last year it was $203.26 on the same Friday, which was about $1.50 higher. During 2015 it was $233.25 on the same Friday so about 45 dollars higher now.
The end of this week the daily Choice Chuck and Round primal were $7 to $14 higher. The daily Choice Rib was $29 higher and Loin primal was $8 higher. The weekly total for the daily cutout was 628 loads and about 9 % of the weekly total loads sold.
The weekly average Choice cutout which includes all types of sales including the daily Choice cutout was 266.49 which was $1.03 higher.
The total sales were 7178 total loads sold for the week which was 833 loads lower than the previous week which was the biggest number in many weeks helped by the exports.
The out-front sales which get delivered after 21 days were 1643 loads which was 638 loads lower than last week.
The exports as reported on the Box Beef report were 853 loads which was 978 loads lower compared to the previous week which was the biggest number in quite a while. This week 91 loads were sold to our NAFTA neighbors and 762 loads were going overseas.
Formula sales were at 3386 loads which was 67 loads lower than last week and about 47 percent of the total loads sold this week.
Taking a look at the major primal cuts which impact the cutout value and the weekly average numbers include all of the different types of sales. The weekly average Choice Chuck and Round primal were both 2 lower but still higher than all previous years yet.
The weekly average Choice Rib primal was 14 higher and the Loin primal was 1 higher so they both continue to follow the movement in the daily prices.
The daily cow cutout ended the week on Friday July 30 was $ 1.29 lower at $229.49 and the 90% trimmings were at $276.74 which was $ 2.84 lower compared to the previous Friday.
The latest report of Imported meat passed for entry into the U.S. for week ending July 24 showed 24,726 metric tons of fresh beef which was about 900 higher than the previous week and about 5100 lower than last year. The year to date total for these imports is 8 % lower than last year so it continues to be much lower. The top 4 countries are Canada which is number one and is 9 % higher than last year, Mexico is the second highest but 9 % lower than last year, New Zealand is 5 % lower, and Australia which is 42 % lower.
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