CZ Cattle Market Analytics analyst Ed Czerwien from Amarillo, TX, provides the following fed cattle and boxed beef recaps for the week ending August 14, 2021.
Fed cattle recap:
The feedlot cattle trades for WE Aug 14 were unevenly steady with some lower and some higher and the cash sales volume was lower than the previous week.
The Five-area formula sales volume totaled 235,934 head compared to about 231,000 the previous week. The Five-area total cash steer and heifer volume was 63,100 head compared to about 81,000 head the previous week.
Nationally reported forward contracted cattle harvested was about 36,000 head this week and packers have 153,000 head for August. The nationally reported 15-30 day delivery purchases this week were 16,954 head along with about 28,000 head for the previous week.
Now looking at the prices. The weekly weighted average cash steer price for WE 08/14/21 for the five-area region was $123.28, which was $0.55 lower compared to the previous week and last year the same week it was $105.06 which was about $3.70 higher that week last year. The same week in 2015 it was $150.62 even though the daily Choice cutout now was about 80 dollars higher than 2015. This week the current five area weighted average live steer formula price was $123.63 and the live formula heifer price was $123.36.
The weighted average Five-area cash dressed steer price was $200.63 which was $2.43 higher. The five-area weighted average formula price which is steers and heifers was $196.38 which was $0.78 higher.
The estimated weekly total FIS cattle harvest for week ending Aug 14 was updated on Monday and reported at 636,000 head and compared to 644,000 head the same week last year. The year to date total is still over 800,000 head higher than last year.
The latest average National steer carcass weight for WE July 31 was 891 lbs which was 3 lbs lower than the previous week and compared to 905 lbs the same week last year which 2 lbs higher than the previous week last year.
Choice-Select spread on Friday Aug 13 was at 26.81 compared to 19.17 the previous week and that compared to 14.98 spread last year.
Boxed beef recap:
The Labor Day rally has skyrocketed much higher than all previous years now and no doubt helped by at home grilling as well as restaurants that have reopened because the Choice Rib has jumped so much higher. The rally started just a little earlier as products were purchased and sent to warehouses ahead of the holiday.
The daily spot Choice box beef cutout ended the week on Friday Aug 13 at $324.83 which was $28.57 higher compared to previous Friday and about $58 higher in the last three weeks. Last year it was $214.24 on the same Friday, which was about $8.75 higher. During 2015 it was $244.72 on the same Friday so about 80 dollars higher now.
The end of this week the daily Choice Chuck and Round primal were $20 to $25 higher, so all major primals are pushing the cutout higher. The daily Choice Loin primal was $37 higher and the Rib was $56 higher which was $163 higher during the last 5 weeks. The weekly total for the daily cutout was 530 loads which dropped down quite a bit lately during the last 4 weeks and about 8 % of the weekly total loads sold.
The weekly average Choice cutout which includes all types of sales including the daily Choice cutout was 297.62 which was $17.04 higher and climbing much higher than all previous years now.
The total sales were 6474 total loads sold for the week which was 429 loads lower than the previous week and dropping lower the last three weeks during the big price rally.
The out-front sales which get delivered after 21 days were 1059 loads which was 450 loads lower than last week.
The exports as reported on the Box Beef report were 680 loads which was 310 loads lower compared to the previous week and exports normally drop lower when our prices climb much higher than the global market. This week 72 loads were sold to our NAFTA neighbors and 608 loads were going overseas.
Formula sales were at 3551 loads which was 158 loads higher than last week and about 55 percent of the total loads sold this week. The formula sales included about 2.7 million lbs of Choice ribeye products along with about 1.8 million lbs of Choice loin strips so steak products continue to have good volume ahead of Labor Day.
Taking a look at the major primal cuts which impact the cutout value and the weekly average numbers include all of the different types of sales. The weekly average Choice Chuck and Round primal were 12 to 16 higher and no doubt helped by higher ninety percent trimming prices because they also produce ground beef products.
The weekly average Choice Rib primal was 17 higher helped by the formula sales and the Loin primal was 27 higher. They have turned around higher and earlier than all previous years, but the Rib normally also climbs higher in the Fall because of Prime Rib type cooking for the holidays.
The daily cow cutout ended the week on Friday Aug 13 was $ 3.91 higher at $233.19 and the 90% trimmings were at $279.76 which was $ 3.79 higher compared to the previous Friday. The 90 percent trimming monthly average graph has been topping out and dropping just a little lower but still much higher than all years now. These high trimming prices have also helped raise the value of the chuck and round from finished cattle because they also produce some ground beef products.
The latest report of Imported meat passed for entry into the U.S. for week ending Aug 07 showed 23,305 metric tons of fresh beef which was about 100 lower than the previous week and about 2800 lower than last year. The year to date total for these imports is 8 % lower than last year so it continues to be much lower. The top 4 countries are Canada which is number one and is 9 % higher than last year, Mexico is the second highest but 9 % lower than last year, New Zealand is 7 % lower, and Australia which is 43 % lower.
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