CZ Cattle Market Analytics analyst Ed Czerwien from Amarillo, TX, provides the following fed cattle recap for the week ending Sept. 18, 2021.
Fed cattle recap:
The feedlot cattle trades for WE Sep 18 were steady to 2 lower and the cash sales volume was lower than the previous week.
The Five-area formula sales volume totaled 266,322 head compared to about 209,000 the previous week. The Five-area total cash steer and heifer volume was 48,164 head compared to about 58,000 head the previous week.
Nationally reported forward contracted cattle harvested was about 56,000 head this week and packers have 201,000 head for September. The nationally reported 15-30 day delivery purchases this week were 7,157 head along with about 20,000 head for the previous week.
Now looking at the prices. The weekly weighted average cash steer price for WE 09/18/21 for the five-area region was $123.88, which was $0.91 lower compared to the previous week and last year the same week it was $103.54 which was about $2.30 higher that week last year. The same week in 2015 it was $134.93 even though the daily Choice cutout now was about 88 dollars higher than 2015, but in 2014 it was $156.74. This week the current five area weighted average live steer formula price was $126.71 and the live formula heifer price was $127.62.
The weighted average Five-area cash dressed steer price was $198.64 which was $2.18 lower. The five-area weighted average formula price which is steers and heifers was $201.83 which was $0.99 lower.
The estimated weekly total FIS cattle harvest for week ending Sep 18 was reported at 657,000 head and compared to 648,000 head the same week last year. The year to date total is still over 800,000 head higher than last year.
The latest average National steer carcass weight for WE Sep 04 was 906 lbs which was 5 lbs higher than the previous week and compared to 918 lbs the same week last year which 2 lbs higher than the previous week last year.
Choice-Select spread on Friday Sep 17 was at 34.72 compared to 33.85 the previous week and that compared to 11.70 spread last year.
Boxed beef recap:
The daily spot Choice box beef cutout ended the week on Friday Sep 17 at $314.47 which was $12.75 lower compared to previous Friday so now about $30 lower during the last 3 weeks. Last year it was $215.64 on the same Friday, which was about $4.00 lower. During 2015 it was $226.30 on the same Friday so about 88 dollars higher now.
The end of this week the daily Choice Chuck and Round primal were 13 to 19 lower. The daily Choice Loin primal was 16 lower and the Rib was $5 lower but now still about $229 higher during the last 11 weeks. The weekly total for the daily cutout was 748 loads and about 11 % of the weekly total loads sold.
The weekly average Choice cutout which includes all types of sales including the daily Choice cutout was 314.34 which was $8.80 lower but still much higher than all previous years now.
The total sales were 6946 total loads sold for the week which was 762 loads higher than the previous week.
The out-front sales which get delivered after 21 days were 1682 loads which was 327 loads higher than last week.
The exports as reported on the Box Beef report were 1013 loads which was only 26 loads lower compared to the previous week. This week 97 loads were sold to our NAFTA neighbors and 916 loads were going overseas. These exports always drop lower when our prices are much higher than the global beef prices but the last few weeks of dropping prices finally increased these exports.
Formula sales were at 3422 loads which was 81 loads higher than last week and about 49 percent of the total loads sold this week.
Taking a look at the major primal cuts which impact the cutout value and the weekly average numbers include all of the different types of sales. The weekly average Choice Chuck and Round primal were 3 to 17 lower but still much higher than any time except last year during the medical epidemic. The weekly average Choice Rib primal was 19 higher and the Loin primal was 21 lower.
However, like previously said many times the Choice Rib always goes much higher ahead of the Prime Rib type cooking for Thanksgiving and Christmas parties, which has gotten bigger the last few years so after dropping down some it will rebound much higher.
The daily cow cutout ended the week on Friday Sep 17 was $ 0.31 lower at $235.23 and the 90% trimmings were at $279.53 which was $ 0.26 lower compared to the previous Friday. The 90 % trimmings are about 68 to 70% of the cow cutout value, so it has the biggest impact on the cow cutout, and it has a big impact on wholesale ground beef prices so it also has impact on retail prices.
The latest report of Imported meat passed for entry into the U.S. for week ending Sep 11 showed 19,984 metric tons of fresh beef which was about 2700 lower than the previous week and about 1600 lower than last year. The year to date total for these imports is 8 % lower than last year so it continues to be much lower. The top 4 countries are Canada which is number one and is 11 % higher than last year, Mexico is the second highest but 8 % lower than last year, New Zealand is 6 % lower, and Australia which is 43 % lower.
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