CZ Cattle Market Analytics analyst Ed Czerwien from Amarillo, TX, provides the following fed cattle recap for the week ending Sept. 25, 2021.
Fed cattle recap:
The feedlot cattle trades for WE Sep 25 were steady to 1 lower and the cash sales volume was higher than the previous week.
The Five-area formula sales volume totaled 240,183 head compared to about 266,000 the previous week. The Five-area total cash steer and heifer volume was 54,118 head compared to about 48,000 head the previous week.
Nationally reported forward contracted cattle harvested was about 50,000 head this week and packers have 201,000 head for September and 196,000 head for October. The nationally reported 15-30 day delivery purchases this week were 7,909 head along with about 7,000 head for the previous week.
Now looking at the prices. The weekly weighted average cash steer price for the five-area region was $123.64, which was only $0.24 lower compared to the previous week and last year the same week it was $105.05 which was about $1.50 higher that week last year. The same week in 2014 it was $156.75 even though the daily Choice cutout now was about 66 dollars higher than 2014. This week the current five area weighted average live steer formula price was $127.05 and the live formula heifer price was $127.36.
The weighted average Five-area cash dressed steer price was $196.30 which was $2.34 lower. The five-area weighted average formula price which is steers and heifers was $202.36 which was $0.53 higher.
The estimated weekly total FIS cattle harvest for week ending Sep 25 was reported at 641,000 head and compared to 655,000 head the same week last year. The year to date total is still over 800,000 head higher than last year.
The latest average National steer carcass weight for WE Sep 11 was 909 lbs which was 3 lbs higher than the previous week and compared to 920 lbs the same week last year which 2 lbs higher than the previous week last year.
Choice-Select spread on Friday Sep 24 was at 28.79 compared to 34.72 the previous week and that compared to 12.36 spread last year.
Infographic credit Ed Czerwien, CZ Cattle Market Analytics.
Boxed beef recap:
The daily spot Choice box beef cutout ended the week on Friday Sep 24 at $303.32 which was $11.15 lower compared to previous Friday so now about $40 lower during the last 4 weeks. Last year it was $219.34 on the same Friday, which was about $4.00 higher. During 2014 it was $237.66 on the same Friday so about 66 dollars higher now. The end of this week the daily Choice Chuck and Round primal were 5 lower to 5 higher. The daily Choice Loin primal was 14 lower and the Rib was 38 lower. The weekly total for the daily cutout was 704 loads and about 10 % of the weekly total loads sold.
The weekly average Choice cutout which includes all types of sales including the daily Choice cutout was 308.07 which was $6.27 lower but still much higher than all previous years now.
The total sales were 7204 total loads sold for the week which was 258 loads higher than the previous week and helped by very good exports. It had been lower for a while during the big price rally which pushed the four-week moving average graph of weekly total loads sold lower than all previous years but that is finally starting to get higher now on the heels of lower prices.
The out-front sales which get delivered after 21 days were 1736 loads which was 54 loads higher than last week.
The exports as reported on the Box Beef report were 1439 loads which was 426 loads higher compared to the previous week. This week 80 loads were sold to our NAFTA neighbors and 1359 loads were going overseas. These exports always drop lower when our prices are much higher than the global beef prices but the last few weeks of dropping prices really increased these exports to big volume.
Formula sales were at 3444 loads which was 22 loads higher than last week and about 48 percent of the total loads sold this week.
Taking a look at the major primal cuts which impact the cutout value and the weekly average numbers include all of the different types of sales. The weekly average Choice Chuck and Round primal were 4 to 5 lower but still much higher than any time except last year during the medical epidemic. The weekly average Choice Rib primal was 6 lower and the Loin primal was 17 lower.
The daily cow cutout ended the week on Friday Sep 24 was $ 2.56 lower at $232.67 and the 90% trimmings were at $276.93 which was $ 2.60 lower compared to the previous Friday.
The latest report of Imported meat passed for entry into the U.S. for week ending Sep 18 showed 22,401 metric tons of fresh beef which was about 2400 higher than the previous week and about 2700 lower than last year. The year to date total for these imports is 8 % lower than last year so it continues to be much lower. The top 4 countries are Canada which is number one and is 11 % higher than last year, Mexico is the second highest but 8 % lower than last year, New Zealand is 6 % lower, and Australia which is 43 % lower.
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