The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has released (Oct. 19, 2023) it’s outlook for the winter of 2023-24.
NOAA’s Jon Gottschalack says El Nino will be a primary factor in weather conditions into the spring.
Gottschalack says weather models show South Dakota having slightly above average temperatures when compared to the rest of the US.
Gottschalack predicts South Dakota currently has equal chances of normal, below normal or above normal precipitation this winter.
While warmer conditions overall are expected, Gottschalack says periods of extreme cold are still a probability this winter.
NOAA’s outlook covers December, January and February.
Written version:
Winter Outlook 2023-2024 (December-January-February)
This year, El Nino is in place heading into winter for the first time in four years, driving the outlook for warmer-than-average temperatures for the northern tier of the continental United States
Temperature
- Warmer-than-average temperatures are favored across the northern tier of the U.S. and much of the Far West.
- The greatest odds for warmer-than-average conditions are in Alaska, the Pacific Northwest and northern New England.
- Near-normal seasonal mean temperatures are most likely for a region from the south-central Rockies to the southern Plains.
- Remaining areas fall into the category of equal chances for below-, near-, or above-average seasonal mean temperatures.
Precipitation
- Wetter-than-average conditions are most likely in northern Alaska, some areas of the West from parts of California to the south-central Rockies, the southern Plains, Gulf Coast, Southeast and lower mid-Atlantic.
- The greatest odds for drier-than-average conditions are forecast in portions of the northern Rockies and central Great Lakes region, especially for Michigan and northern Ohio and Indiana.
- Much of the central portion of the U.S. falls into the category of equal chances for below-, near-, or above-average seasonal total precipitation.
Drought
- Widespread extreme to exceptional drought continues to persist across much of the South, and portions of the central U.S.
- Drought conditions are expected to improve across the Southeast, the Gulf Coast (including the lower Mississippi Valley), and Texas due to the expected wetter-than-average forecast.
- Drought conditions are expected to persist for the northern Rockies, northern Great Plains, and portions of the desert Southwest this winter.
- Drought development could occur in the interior Pacific Northwest given the chance for drier-than-average conditions.
- Drought is likely to persist or develop across Hawaii.
Additional details can be found here: https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/us-winter-outlook-wetter-south-warmer-north
Winter Preparedness
Please join us in promoting winter weather safety during South Dakota’s Winter Preparedness Day on October 25 and Minnesota’s Winter Weather Preparedness Week November 13-17.
Blizzards that last for days, snow that accumulates by the foot, bitter wind and cold that stings the face, all of these things are just part of living on the Great Plains during the winter months!
While we are no strangers to the hazards winter can bring, it is still prudent to review safety and preparedness steps that should be taken before, during and after winter storms.
The National Weather Service asks emergency management, public safety officials, local media and Weather-Ready Nation Ambassadors to help join forces in improving the nation’s readiness, responsiveness, and overall resilience against extreme weather during the winter weather season.
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