With the news of the Justin Jefferson extension this week, it is a welcome reminder that football season is only a few short months away. 90 days 12 hours to be exact, but who’s counting? With mandatory minicamps beginning for the Minnesota Vikings, what better time to start looking ahead at the 2024 season and what all it could possibly hold? Let’s get into it.
I must preface this by saying NFL schedule-makers did not show the Vikings any grace when settling on a final schedule. The NFL uses a scheduling algorithm that takes into account division alignments and a team’s performance from the previous season, among other things. This algorithm creates hundreds of thousands of different schedules possibilities until one is ultimately decided on by the NFL. In theory, a team that did not perform very well last year will usually get an easier schedule, and vice versa. The Vikings, who finished 7-10 and tied for last in the division a year ago, will start the 2024 season with the fifth-hardest projected schedule. For comparison, the Bears (also 7-10 in 2023) will play the third easiest schedule in 2024. The Lions, who fell three points short of a trip to the Super Bowl a season ago, will play the twelfth hardest schedule in 2024. Keep in mind, the Vikings share a division with two playoff teams in the Packers and Lions, and a team in Chicago that just got a whole lot better after the 2024 draft. This is enough to bump anyone’s schedule up a few spots on the difficulty list.
Week 1: at New York Giants
If you want to find a bright side to a tough schedule for Minnesota, look no further than week 1. While it is not a home game for the Vikings, MetLife is not what you would consider a gamechanger in terms of home field advantage. The Giants, who finished with only six wins a year ago, committed $160 million to quarterback Daniel Jones, whose only winning season came two years ago when the team went 9-6-1. After starting 1-5 in 2023, Jones went down with an ACL injury that sidelined him the remainder of the year. This should be a great “toe in the water” moment for JJ McCarthy who is given the opportunity to start his career with a road win.
Week 2: vs San Fransisco 49ers
Let the gauntlet begin. If everything goes according to plan, U.S. Bank Stadium will be rocking for the 1-0 Vikings as they take on the reigning NFC Champions in week 2. This will serve as a litmus test for where the Vikings sit as a franchise. Can the Vikings win this game? Of course! Will they? I plead the fifth. Try and keep the big picture in mind week 2. There are two things to pay attention to in week 2, and neither are the score. 1) How comfortable does McCarthy look against one of the fastest defenses in the NFL? 2.) How well was the Vikings defense able to contain the likes of Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel etc. Even if the Vikings lose a close game in week 2, it is a sign of a prosperous future.
Week 3: vs Houston Texans
No rest for the weary. One of the most surprising stories of the 2023 season was the unexpected dominance by the Houston Texans. A team that no one expected to compete ended up being one of the most dangerous opponents week in, week out. CJ Stroud’s rookie campaign was historic in terms of his ability to protect the football, waiting weeks to throw his first interception. The Vikings are hoping to recreate similar success with their rookie QB. So often we see a sophomore slump after a rookie over-delivers on expectations, and if this is the case for Houston, the Vikings could put the league on notice in 2024 with an upset. After week 3, Minnesota could find themselves at 2-1, and it is not far-fetched to believe this team might still be undefeated heading into Week 4.
Week 4: at Green Bay Packers
Another QB who broke out of his shell in 2023 was Packers quarterback, Jordan Love. The Packers may sneakily be the most well-rounded team in the division and will be a hurdle the Vikings need to jump over every year to reach the top of the division. To me, the Packers are emerging as the most stable team in the North. Now you may think I forgot about the Lions, but if I had to choose between Jared Goff and Jordan Love at this point in time, I am taking Jordan Love every day of the week. Love, who was mentored by Aaron Rodgers, shows similarities in his throwing style and innate arm strength. On paper, the Packers are a better team than the Vikings, but games aren’t played on paper. A huge advantage for Minnesota is being able to play at Lambeau in September rather than late December when Minnesota is slated to play Green Bay again. No one wants to travel to play Green Bay late in the year when the field is brown, the jackets are burnt orange, and the temperatures are single digits (or lower).
Week 5: New York Jets (London)
In another addition of NFL overseas, Minnesota looks to continue great success internationally. With Aaron Rodgers returning as the Jets starting quarterback, this will certainly be an entertaining way to kick off an NFL Sunday. The question going into a London game almost always centers around the teams travel schedule more than their week of practice, and there is credibility to that. For example, last year the Bills traveled overseas to play the Jaguars. Jacksonville had been in London for more than a week prior and the Bills did not arrive until 3 days before the game. The Bills came out flat, slow and discombobulated and lost. Bills HC Sean McDermott received heavy criticism for his decision to wait so long to travel his team. I say all that because these London games truly are a toss-up. You truly can never predict what type of team you are going to get. Hopefully O’Connell learns from McDermott and decides to give the Vikings plenty of time to arrive and adjust to the substantial time change.
Week 6: BYE
Well, that was quick. It really depends on who you talk to when it comes to the best time of the year to get your bye week. Some argue it is beneficial to a team to have an early bye, a team can get hot towards the end of the season and sometimes the worst thing that can happen is a bye week that slows that momentum down. On the flip side, it is a long season and having a week off as the season winds down can work wonders for a team plagued with injuries. I will let you decide how you feel about a week 6 bye.
Week 7: vs Detroit Lions
Circle this one on your schedule, everyone. Minnesota has a very realistic chance of coming into this game with a winning record, even after a scheduled start that will humble the best of teams. If that is the case, look for this game to be flexed out of the noon kickoff slot. We talked about a potential sophomore slump from CJ Stroud and the Texans, will the Lions have a hangover from their success in 2023? If there is any coach that can motivate a team out of a potential slump following a great season, it’s Lions HC Dan Campbell. The Lions are scary and will likely be the toughest test for the Vikings thus far. While I think the Packers will be the best team in the long term, the Lions are the team to worry about in the now. We will get a very good idea of where the Vikings season is headed after this game.
Week 8: at Los Angeles Rams (TNF)
Let’s be honest, this has all the ingredients of a forgettable week 8 for the Vikings. Coming off what should be an extremely physical matchup against division foe, Detroit, Minnesota has to travel out west and play a well-coached, offensive juggernaut in the Rams on only three days rest. On the bright side, this caps off a treacherous run through the NFC. If the Vikings come out flat and look like a shell of themselves, don’t be surprised. There is no way else to cut it, these don’t usually end up in a victory.
Week 9: vs Indianapolis Colts
In recent years (post Andrew Luck) you might see Indy on the schedule and pencil in an easy win. However, the Colts are trying to buck that trend with Anthony Richardson coming back in year two. Prior to a season-ending shoulder injury, Richardson showed promise and the Colts did too. This is a game the Vikings should win but will certainly be a test, what we would call a trap game. It is very easy in these spots to look ahead, especially when you have three straight road games that follow. This week will be all about how Kevin O’Connell prepares his team mentally as they make the turn.
Week 10: at Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 10 marks the start of a three-game road trip for the Vikings in what could prove to be pivotal for their playoff hopes. The Jaguars have fallen into a category of uncertainty the past few seasons, largely thanks to the wrecking ball that obliterated the organization known as Urban Meyer. Trevor Lawerence seems to have finally turned the corner from those days and has been surrounded with a flock of talent. The Jaguars were overshadowed by the unexpected success from the Texans last season, but this feels like the year Jacksonville puts it together and reclaims the AFC South. Trevor Lawerence did not have his best season a year ago, but this could be a very difficult matchup for the Vikings. A win would go a long way for the Vikings rookie quarterback.
Week 11: at Tennessee Titans
This is one of those games the Vikings absolutely must win. Even with a rookie QB in J.J. McCarthy, the Vikings are the better team going into 2024. The Titans enter the season with a new head coach, Brian Callahan, who replaced Mike Vrabel after he was fired following the 2023 season. The Titans tried a few different hands at QB (Ryan Tannehill & Malik Willis), but ultimately ushered in the Will Levis era midway through the season. Who knows, maybe Levis and new offensive addition Calvin Ridley will click. Maybe Callahan is the next great coach in this new wave of young guns. Tennessee could shock us, but I fully expect Minnesota to handle Tennessee in November.
Week 12: at Chicago Bears
The anticipation surrounding the #1 overall pick, Caleb Williams, is palpable. With the Bears being this year’s featured team on HBO’s ‘Hard Knocks’, Vikings fans will be seeing A LOT of Caleb Williams prior to the 2024 campaign whether they want to or not. J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings have an opportunity here, no matter what each team’s records are, to put their stamp on the division. McCarthy won a CFB National Championship a year ago, but all the talk has been around Williams. And the dialogue around Williams is only going to accelerate, so McCarthy may be able to use this as motivation to prove he can lead his team to a division title in a year of low expectations. Williams has always talked about playing with a chip on his shoulder, I believe McCarthy can do the same. An advantage to playing a team like Chicago for the first time in week 12 is you have a full sample-size of what the Bears are, and this is when coaching is paramount. Coaching wins and loses games in the NFL more than people realize, and I have to give O’Connell the edge over Bears HC Matt Eberflus.
Week 13: vs Arizona Cardinals
Week 13 begins a three-game homestretch that could be a defining moment in the Vikings season. The Cardinals actually surprised a lot of people last year in Jonathan Gannon’s first year as HC, but only because Arizona wasn’t expected to win anything without Kyler Murray. With Murray returning this year, the Cardinals hope to improve from last year’s 4-13 record. But make no mistake, a Cardinals win here would be an upset. The Vikings realistic hopes at this point in the year would be to find themselves sitting in a wild card position, and a win against the Cardinals will be a must to continue towards a playoff berth.
Week 14: vs Atlanta Falcons
Well, well, well… Look who is back. I expect the Vikings fateful to give Kirk Cousins a warm welcome home, if only for a moment. The welcome will quickly turn to hostility as Minnesota hopes to spoil Cousins’ homecoming. If Michael Penix Jr. has not taken over the QB1 role by week 14, it would only mean the Falcons are still in playoff contention (as they fully expect to be). The ultimate gift to Vikings fans would not only be to beat Kirk on his old stomping grounds, but also secure a very important victory for the team’s postseason hopes. Let’s keep our fingers crossed and hope this one gets flexed into primetime.
Week 15: vs Chicago Bears (MNF)
I imagine this is the game that stood out to everyone when we took our first look at the schedule. We know it stood out to the NFL enough to make this week 15’s Monday Night Football game. I am getting goosebumps thinking about the cameras panning around U.S. Bank stadium with 73,000 Vikings fans doing the SKOL chant moments before kickoff. The Bank will be absolutely rocking, it will be a playoff atmosphere, and all eyes will fall on the two rookie QB’s. The world will get a taste of what the NFC North will look like for years to come. If the Vikings can win two of the three games in this homestand, consider it a success.
Week 16: at Seattle Seahawks
No matter where the Seahawks sit in the standings, going on the road to Seattle is always a tough task, especially for a young quarterback. Known for their 12th man, Seahawks fans pride themselves on having the best (and loudest) home field advantage. But this will be a much different looking Seattle squad, mainly because we won’t see Pete Carroll, hands-on-knees, chewing vigorously on a piece of bubble gum. New Seattle HC, Mike Macdonald looks to bring a better defense to 2024, but there is no telling what this team will look like with two weeks left in the season. Regardless, McCarthy will have to be able to tune out the noise and, most likely, the weather.
Week 17: vs Green Bay Packers
The Vikings are very fortunate to close both the Bears and Packers at home. For one, they avoid playing both teams outdoors in December, and two, they can fall back on a massive home field advantage to assist them in what could be the final touches of a playoff run. These two games against the Bears and Packers are very important games for J.J. McCarthy. As of right now, he is the low man on the totem pole in terms of NFC North quarterbacks. While we don’t know what the order will be in week 17, J.J. has a golden opportunity to let the division know he is legitimate. No matter what the stakes are, it will always feel good for Vikings fans to beat that Wisconsin team.
Week 18: at Detroit Lions
No date nor time has been assigned to this game yet, which means the NFL expects this to be for all the marbles. We can only hope the week 18 can deliver a show like it did a year ago, with one of the most controversial ‘eligibility’ penalties we have seen in a long time. If you don’t remember the details, in week 18 last season The Lions lost to the Cowboys, 20-19, after offensive tackle Taylor Decker’s 2-point conversion was negated when it was ruled Decker was not an eligible receiver. Two attempts followed to no avail (one an incompletion that was negated by a Dallas penalty and a final official incompletion). It was the talk of the town as the Lions did not clinch the #1 overall seed, which would have granted them home field advantage in the playoffs. If we get half of that drama in week 18 it will be a treat.
So, what can we expect record-wise from the Vikings this year? Well, it all depends on how realistically you want to look at it.
Overachievers (12-5):
This should be the ceiling for the Vikings in 2024. 12-5 would exceed expectations, and could possibly win them the division. An NFC North title is not far-fetched for this team, look what the Texans did with CJ Stroud only a year ago. For Minnesota to win the north, they will need to limit injuries and have a breakout year from J.J. McCarthy. Look for him to lean heavily on the highest paid, non-QB in NFL history, Justin Jefferson.
Realistic Expectations (9-8)
The Vikings are going through a gauntlet in 2024. Having to play great teams week-in, week out wears on you. Injuries are inevitable and usually dictate a team’s outcome. I will say this schedule will help the progression of J.J. McCarthy. Baptism by fire for the rookie quarterback will benefit him long term. They are on the right track and feel they have the franchise quarterback to get them back to the promised land. But it may take some time. I expect the Vikings competing for a Wild Card in December.
Disappointment (4-13)
I have to do worst case scenario, and while I do expect more than 4 wins, crazier things have happened. In this model, the Vikings beat the Giants, Jets, Titans and Seahawks. And that’s it. These are games they should win and if they don’t win more than that, yes it will be disappointing. But it won’t be the end of the world.
The important thing to remember is the Vikings are now in long-term mode. The ‘win now’ days are behind, which is good news! When a team goes ‘win now’ they close the window to the future, the Vikings are in a great spot. They have the right coach, a young quarterback and the best receiver in the league. Things are on the up-and-up for Minnesota.
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