On June 6th of last year, I did my Vikings ‘way-too-early’ season prediction. In that blog, I said it would be an overachievement to go 12-5, and boy was I wrong. However, I did say that winning the NFC North was not far-fetched, and the Vikings have the chance to do just that tonight against the Detroit Lions.
Let’s set the stage before we get into the analysis of this crucially important game. The league as a whole this year has been an anomaly. Rarely do we see this many teams with such abysmal records like we do this season, 9 teams having four or fewer wins. Then you have divisions like the NFC North with two 14-win teams with the Lions and Vikings along with the 11-win Packers, and the AFC North with two of the three MVP candidates with Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson. These oddities are what makes tonight’s Sunday Night Football matchup a historic regular season wrap-up.
Never in NFL history has a 14-win team finished as the 5-seed in the playoffs, but that’s changing tonight. Because of how the NFL playoffs work, if you win your division you automatically finish as a 1-4 seed regardless of your record. For example, if the Bucs win today they will finish 10-7 and NFC South champions, which means they will be seeded higher than the loser of tonight’s Lions Vikings game even though they hold more losses. Is this fair? Maybe not, but this is how it always has been. It resembles Oregon’s draw in the College Football Playoff that had so many people up in arms. The Ducks were far and away the best team all season yet had the toughest road through the playoffs. Same thing with tonight, these two teams have put together such incredible seasons, but one of them is going on the road in round one.
I can’t remember a regular season game with not only this much anticipation, but this much on the line. One that comes to mind is the Bills vs. Bengals game when Damar Hamlin went into cardiac arrest. That game had AFC one-seed implications, but it wasn’t as cut-and-dry as tonight. There isn’t many that come to mind because there haven’t been scenarios like this before. Even though both teams have been dominant wire-to-wire, playing at home versus on the road in the playoffs can legitimately be the difference in outcome.
Both teams are dealing with injuries, but who isn’t at this point in the year? The Lions, however, have been hit harder than just about anyone and those could play a big role this evening. Here is a full report of the lions injury list: https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/injuries/_/name/det/detroit-lions
One guy the Lions might get back tonight is linebacker Alex Anzalone, but they are still thin after losing superstar pass-rusher Aiden Hutchinson to a broken leg against Dallas. If Anzalone can go, the Lions should feel better about their second-level.
Here is why I like the Vikings tonight. For weeks now the Lions have been penciled in as the one seed because they had been utterly dominating anyone and everyone that got in their way. There was still just this assumption that the Vikings would come back down to earth at some point after their blazing start, especially with their final few opponents as the season came to a close. The Vikings couldn’t afford to lose a game down the stretch since they lost to Detroit earlier in the year. Detroit also got the benefit of having the struggling Bears and 49ers in weeks 16 & 17 while the Vikings had to go on the road to Seattle then host the Packers, both of which they won. The Lions also haven’t been playing at this world-beater level the final third of the season either. They barely got out alive against the Bears on Thanksgiving, their defense got exposed by Buffalo and San Francisco, and it might be that those injuries are catching up with them.
On the other side of the field, the Vikings are playing the most uniform football of anyone in the league. Sam Darnold has been playing in another stratosphere, Jordan Addison and Justin Jefferson are a nightmare for defenses, and they’re led by Kevin O’Connell who should be named Coach of the Year. I made the comparison between Dan Campbell and Kevin O’Connell on the podcast, but its almost like asking which one you want to drive your kids to the park? Kevin O’Connell will slow down for yellow lights, hold the wheel 10-and-2, and drive five miles under the speed limit. Dan Campbell, on the other hand, won’t even make it to the park because he stopped off at the axe throwing place. Campbell’s MO has been to push his chips to the middle of the table and play more aggressive than anyone else in the league, O’Connell is more subdued than that. In a game that could come down to coaching, I like the stability of O’Connell.
Prediction: Everyone wants this to be a shootout, a high-scoring affair that we talk about for years to come. And I would not be surprised if that’s what we got. However, as of right now I think the Vikings are playing better football. Going back to the last time they played, the Lions were in the midst of their tear through the league and they barely got past Minnesota. Gibbs had a monstrous game, but with David Montgomery out the Lions are missing the one-two punch that has caused defenses so many problems. The Vikings scored 29-points with only one touchdown from Sam Darnold in that game, that won’t happen again tonight. I expect Darnold to throw for at least two, and I expect Jordan Addison to be on the receiving end of one. I also expect the Vikings to get T.J. Hockenson involved who wasn’t available in their first matchup. Minnesota needs to keep the top on Jameson Williams who can flip the field in an instant and limit Amon-Ra St. Brown’s impact and they can win this game on the road. Vikings 34-23 to take the one-seed.
For an audio preview, follow this link: https://kgfxbeyondthemic.podbean.com/e/vikings-vs-lions-nfl-week-18-preview/
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