When the Chiefs and the Ravens faced off on Thursday night, September 5th 2024, I promised to cherish this season unlike any other. I had just taken over as the Sports Director for DRG Media Group, and it was finally my “job” to watch football. Now, on Super Bowl Sunday, I think back to that first game where the Chiefs barely squeaked out a win against the Ravens, the difference being 7-points and the width of Isaiah Likely’s toenail. We knew the Chiefs got away with one, but we didn’t know this would be the method Kansas City would employ for nearly all of the 2024-25 season.
Let’s look back at some of those regular season coin-flip finishes that all seemed to go the way of KC. There was the regular season opener where Baltimore thought they had the touchdown to potentially tie the game, but Isaiah Likely was out of bounds by a few blades of grass. The following week, they escaped a game against the Bengals after a pass interference call against Cincinnati got Kansas City into field goal range to kick the game winner. On to Week 3 against the Falcons, a missed pass interference call against Kyle Pitts in the end zone saves the Chiefs from a Falcons go ahead score, the Chiefs would win by five. Fast forward to the Broncos game, the Chiefs win by two after blocking a Broncos game-winning chip shot. Then the Raiders game, a phantom whistle causes a fumble as Aidan O’Connell is leading Las Vegas down the field to pull off the upset. To two weeks ago, Josh Allen picks up the first down, but the official on the opposite side of the ball marks him short. It’s been a season of stumbles that the Chiefs have simply just avoided. This isn’t the dominant team we have seen win the last two, but you have to give them credit because they just found ways to win. The Chiefs have won 17-straight one possession games… That should tell you about how good these guys are at closing out games.
The Eagles, on the other hand, have looked like a team of dominance the way their defense has emerged with it’s young stars. Nolan Smith has come to life in the postseason, and has been crucial in the absence of Nakobe Dean. They have also continued to thank their lucky stars that the Giants were idiotic enough to let Saquon Barkley walk, as he has put together a season that puts him in the company of Barry Sanders, Marshall Faulk and other greats. The Eagles didn’t need to squeak their way by anyone, rolling through an electric Commanders team that simply didn’t have an answer for Barkley or the Eagles front four. Philly hasn’t lost a game that Jalen Hurts finished since September, they’re playing about as elite as anyone has coming into a Super Bowl.
This is a game where the coordinators might be more important than the coaches themselves, mainly on defense. The Chiefs defense is led by Steve Spagnuolo, who has single-handedly won the Chiefs numerous games with his play calling alone. Just look at the final fourth down against the Bills in the AFC Championship, Spagnuolo brought a blitz the Bills hadn’t seen all season long and it caught Buffalo so off guard Josh Allen couldn’t get a comfortable throw off. Coordinators don’t get into the Hall of Fame, only head coaches, but if there ever was one that deserved it, it’s Steve Spagnuolo. For Philadelphia, they have their own “chess-master” moving the pieces on defense in Vic Fangio. Fangio, another guy who has been around the league for forever, has built one of the most vaunted defenses in this era. Fangio has had the benefit of some incredible work in the draft by GM Howie Roseman, but he has made them all gel together to operate as one of the most dominant units in the league. Up front, Nolan Smith can give you nightmares as a pass-rusher, as can Jalen Carter on the other side of the line. And don’t forget about the mountain Jordan Davis who plugs up the middle. On the back end, rookie Cooper DeJean has been lights out in coverage, as has Reed Blankenship who both play with a proverbial chip on their shoulder.
This game is going to be amazing, so let’s put our money where our mouth is and make some picks. The fun part about the Super Bowl is folks start to look into prop bets for the first time in their life. Fun ones like “Will the National Anthem be over/under 1:15 seconds” or “What color will the Gatorade be that gets dumped on the winning coach?” and of course, “heads or tails”. Tails never fails, by the way.
But I like to pick what I know, and I know that Dallas Goedert is due for a big game. He has been quiet these playoffs but is primed to break out. He is listed at 4.5 catches, I think he has more than that. I also think he has more than the 53.5 yards he is listed to have. If we are getting really crazy, I have a “anytime TD scorer” prop that may make you a little coin. There is a player at +400 that I think is a perfect pick to score tonight, he doesn’t have the breakaway speed he once did, but DeAndre Hopkins can still shake a defender loose in a 10-15 yard route. He still has the best hands on the field, and in a part of the field where defenses are looking to take away Travis Kelce, I think Hopkins finds a little space and finds himself in the end zone.
As for the game, there has never been a three-peat Super Bowl champion in NFL history. There have been teams in the same spot as the Chiefs, won two in a row, but their attempts at a three-peat are as follows:
- 1968 Packers: 6-7-1, missed playoffs
- 1974 Dolphins: 11-3, lost in divisional round
- 1976 Steelers: 10-4, lost in AFC championship
- 1980 Steelers: 9-7, missed playoffs
- 1990 49ers: 14-2, lost in NFC championship
- 1994 Cowboys: 12-4, lost in NFC championship
- 1999 Broncos: 6-10, missed playoffs
- 2005 Patriots: 10-6, lost in divisional round
Winning three in a row is hard. Heck, winning one is almost impossible for a lot of organizations. But the Chiefs are in the best position of anyone to do it. I am not sure if it’s my disdain for Kansas City, or just how well the Eagles defense has been playing lately, but I think it’s the Eagles time tonight. It just feels like the Chiefs have lived off Lady Luck for far too long, and tonight’s the night it runs out. If I had to predict how the game will go, I think this feels close in the first half. But in the second half, I think the Eagles get a few things to go their way that makes us say, “Wow that usually happens for Kansas City.” We will be asking ourselves. “OK, when is Mahomes gonna take over, when are the refs gonna come into play, when will the Chiefs do their Chiefs thing and win the game?” But it won’t happen. Eagles 34-27 (my nephews numbers, not mine) and Philadelphia wins SB LIX.
I will warn you, if the Chiefs lose this game it could be the beginning of a tear that we have never seen before. This could be the beginning of the Chiefs villain story where they win four in a row and we are left saying, “I wish they had just won the three-peat and gone away forever”. So, if we are hoping the Eagles win this game tonight, let’s be careful what we wish for.
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