Weekly pork slaughter was estimated to be higher than 2.6 million head, although we won’t know the actual figures as the USDA has furloughed many of its staff due to a funding lapse.
Seasonally, pork supply trends higher in the fall, and this year is no different. Slaughter is up 11 percent compared to where it was in mid-August, while weights are up three percent. With nearly 15 percent more pork coming to market, prices have started to trend lower and could see more downside this quarter. Pork trim prices were counter-seasonally higher in the previous three weeks, but the increase in supply has finally started to catch up with this market. Strong demand should keep prices above year-ago levels, but prices in November and December are expected to be lower than the current trends. Ham prices are expected to trade sideways, while belly prices could see more downside.
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