Consultant groups like AgRural and StoneX lowered their forecasts for Brazil’s 2025-2026 soybean output, as yield losses caused by bad weather in the state of Rio Grande (GRAHN-day) do Sul weigh on overall production.
AgRural estimated the country’s soybean output at 178 million metric tons, lowering its forecast from 181 million tons, citing those drought-related losses. Those losses were “partially offset by higher yields in other states.” Brazilian farmers had harvested 39 percent of their soybeans as of late last week.
StoneX is predicting Brazil’s output to reach 177.8 million metric tons, 2.1 percent less than prior estimates. Despite the downward revision, the new forecast still points to a record crop. StoneX said weather issues have caused some damage to crops, especially in Rio Grande do Sul, where rains arrived late and were quite irregular. There may be revisions yet to come as the harvest cycle in Rio Grande do Sul typically runs later than in other states.
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