CZ Cattle Market Analytics analyst Ed Czerwien from Amarillo, TX, provides the following fed cattle and boxed beef recaps for the week ending April 17, 2021.
Fed cattle recap:
The feedlot cattle trades for WE Apr 17 were mostly steady, and the cash sales volume was lower than the previous week.
The Five-area formula sales volume totaled 215,838 head compared to about 228,000 the previous week. The Five-area total cash steer and heifer volume was 77,599 head compared to about 96,000 head the previous week.
Nationally reported forward contracted cattle harvested was about 58,000 head this week and packers have 275,000 head for April. The nationally reported 15-30 day delivery purchases this week were 40,056 head along with over 30,000 head for many previous week. The packers already have over 90,000 head each week when you add the 15-30 day and forward contracts.
Now looking at the prices. The weekly weighted average cash steer price for WE 04/17/21 for the five-area region was 122.03, which was only $0.02 higher compared to the previous week and last year the same week it was 102.28 which was about $2.70 lower that week last year. The same week in 2015 it was 161.65 even though the daily Choice cutout now was 16 dollars higher than that year. This week the current five area weighted average live steer formula price was 120.76 this week and the live formula heifer price was 122.45.
The weighted average Five-area cash dressed steer price was 195.54 which was $0.24 higher. The five-area weighted average formula price which is steers and heifers was 192.15 which was $3.98 higher.
The estimated weekly total FIS cattle harvest was reported at 640,000 head and compared to 486,000 head the same week last year which was when the packing plants were shut down for the medical epidemic.
The latest average National steer carcass weight for WE Apr 03 was 894 lbs which was 5 lbs lower than the previous week and compared to 889 lbs the same week last year which was 2 lbs lower than the previous week last year.
Choice-Select spread on Friday Apr 16 was at 6.95 compared to 8.10 the previous week and that compared to 11.79 spread last year.
Boxed beef recap:
The daily spot Choice box beef cutout ended the week on Friday Apr 16 at 276.05 which was $3.88 higher compared to previous Friday. Last year it was 238.99 on the same Friday which was $15.06 higher then it continued jumping much higher during the packing plant shutdowns, topping out at 475 in early May which was a very abnormal high when panic retail buying continued.
The end of this week the daily Choice Chuck and Round primal were 1 lower to 1 higher but still much lower than last year when the big employment layoffs forced people to buy more of these cheaper products. The daily Choice Rib and Loin primal were 7 to 13 higher which is normal during the grilling season.
The weekly total for the daily cutout was 536 loads and about 9 % of the weekly total loads sold.
The weekly average Choice cutout which includes all types of sales including the daily Choice cutout was 263.32 which was $8.35 higher but about 13 lower than the Friday daily Choice cutout yet.
However, like previously said the weekly average is following the daily cutout slowly which is always normal because many but not all formula sales are priced off of the previous week’s daily spot prices. The formula sales are always the biggest portion of the weekly total loads sold and usually around 50 percent but the bigger numbers of out-front and export sales also have a big impact on the weekly average cutout.
The total sales were 6251 total loads sold for the week which was 614 loads lower than the previous week. The out-front sales which get delivered after 21 days were 1189 loads which was 466 loads lower than last week.
The exports as reported on the Box Beef report were 1024 loads which was good yet, and 68 loads higher compared to the previous week. This week 117 loads were sold to our NAFTA neighbors and 907 loads were going overseas.
Formula sales were at 3407 loads which was 80 loads lower than last week and about 55 percent of the total loads sold this week. The formula sales included about 2.1 millions lbs of Choice ribeye products along with about 2 million lbs of Choice loin strips so steak products are continuing to have good volume.
Taking a look at the major primal cuts which impact the cutout value and the weekly average numbers include all of the different types of sales. The weekly average Choice Chuck and Round primal were steady to 2 higher and both are still lower than last year during the panic buying but higher than previous normal years.
The weekly average Choice Rib primal and the weekly average Choice Loin were 16 to 21 higher which really helped the cutout get much higher. However, both of these are still in the time of the year when the barbeque season rally takes place, so they should continue to improve even more soon.
The daily cow cutout ended the week on Friday April 16 was $ 0.79 higher at 191.50 and the 90% trimmings were at 234.45 which was $ 0.59 higher compared to the previous Friday. Always remember both of these always continue to climb higher during the summer however, last year saw that tremendous jump higher during the medical epidemic due to some packing plants shut down along with great demand for home cooking.
The latest report of Imported meat passed for entry into the U.S. for week ending Apr 10 showed 20,236 metric tons of fresh beef which was about 500 lower than the previous week but about 1500 lower than last year. The year to date total for these imports is 9 % lower than last year. The top 4 countries are Canada which is number one and is 10 % higher than last year, Mexico is the second highest but 8 % lower than last year, New Zealand is 3 % higher, and Australia which is 46 % lower.
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