CZ Cattle Market Analytics analyst Ed Czerwien from Amarillo, TX, provides the following fed cattle and boxed beef recaps for the week ending May 8, 2021.
Fed cattle recap:
The feedlot cattle trades for WE May 08 were steady to 2 lower, and the cash sales volume was bigger than the previous week.
The Five-area formula sales volume totaled 233,453 head compared to about 233,000 the previous week. The Five-area total cash steer and heifer volume was 74,857 head compared to about 58,000 head the previous week.
Nationally reported forward contracted cattle harvested was about 60,000 head this week and packers have 247,000 head for May. The nationally reported 15-30 day delivery purchases this week were 29,819 head along with 24,000-40,000 head for many previous week.
Now looking at the prices. The weekly weighted average cash steer price for the five-area region was $118.36, which was $0.53 lower compared to the previous week and last year the same week it was $104.50 which was about $6.00 higher that week last year. The same week in 2015 it was $161.93 even though the daily Choice cutout now was almost 50 dollars higher than 2015
This week the current five area weighted average live steer formula price was $121.35 this week and the live formula heifer price was $123.56.
The weighted average Five-area cash dressed steer price was $188.53 which was $1.91 lower. The five-area weighted average formula price which is steers and heifers was $192.94 which was $1.32 lower.
The estimated weekly total FIS cattle harvest was reported at 638,000 head and compared to 476,000 head the same week last year which was when the packing plants were shut down for the medical epidemic.
The latest average National steer carcass weight for WE Apr 24 was 896 lbs which was 2 lbs lower than the previous week and compared to 891 lbs the same week last year which was 2 lbs higher than the previous week last year.
Choice-Select spread on Friday May 07 was at 15.61 compared to 13.45 the previous week and that compared to 11.89 spread last year.
Boxed beef recap:
The daily spot Choice box beef cutout ended the week on Friday May 07 at $305.88 which was $9.38 higher compared to previous Friday. Last year it was $460.88 on the same Friday which was $83 higher then it only continued jumping higher for two more days before starting to drop much lower last year. However, in 2015 it was $257.58 the same Friday so, it is now almost 50 higher than 2015 when fat cattle prices were much higher than they are now.
The end of this week the daily Choice Chuck and Round primal were 5 to 7 higher. The daily Choice Rib and Loin primal were 11 to 18 higher and no doubt helped by the grilling season along with big demand from restaurants.
The weekly total for the daily cutout was 492 loads and about 8% of the weekly total loads sold.
The weekly average Choice cutout which includes all types of sales including the daily Choice cutout was 289.09 which was $8.60 higher.
The total sales were 6298 total loads sold for the week which was 199 loads lower than the previous week continuing to push the four-week moving average of total weekly loads sold lower again. That is often a normal situation when prices skyrocket higher.
The out-front sales which get delivered after 21 days were 1170 loads which was 16 loads higher than last week.
The exports as reported on the Box Beef report were 648 loads which was 107 loads lower compared to the previous week and a typical drop in volume when prices continue to skyrocket higher. This week 182 loads were sold to our NAFTA neighbors and 466 loads were going overseas.
Formula sales were at 3464 loads which was 103 loads lower than last week and about 55 percent of the total loads sold this week.
Taking a look at the major primal cuts which impact the cutout value and the weekly average numbers include all of the different types of sales. The weekly average Choice Chuck and Round primal were 7 to 8 higher and both are lower than last year during the panic buying but higher than previous normal years yet.
The weekly average Choice Rib primal and the Choice Loin were 8 to 11 higher and all of the major primals helped the cutout get higher now.
The daily cow cutout ended the week on Friday May 7 was $ 5.34 higher at 203.23 and the 90% trimmings were at 249.55 which was $ 5.54 higher compared to the previous Friday.
The latest report of Imported meat passed for entry into the U.S. for week ending May 01 showed 21,627 metric tons of fresh beef which was about 300 lower than the previous week and about 500 higher than last year. The year to date total for these imports is 9 % lower than last year. The top 4 countries are Canada which is number one and is 11 % higher than last year, Mexico is the second highest but 6 % lower than last year, New Zealand is 4 % lower, and Australia which is 45 % lower.
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