The final Major Championship of the 2024 PGA Tour season tees off tomorrow morning, and the leaderboard will be flooded with familiar names. This year marks the 152nd playing of The Open Championship, this years rendition will take place at Royal Troon. This will be the tenth time an Open Champion has been crowned at Royal Troon, the first back in 1923.
The Open rotates a circuit of 10 different courses year in and year out (Old Course at St. Andrews, Royal Portrush, Muirfield, Royal Liverpool, Royal Birkdale, Royal Latham & St. Annes, Turnberry, Royal St. Georges, Carnoustie & Royal Troon) all of which are links-style courses.
Links-style courses are so different from the traditional courses we have here in the states. Links courses are flat with rolling mounds, small yet deep bunkers, vast greens, treacherous rough and an endless supply of tight lies. In an interview with world No. 1, Scottie Scheffler, he spoke about how normally he will often decide between two clubs when chipping around the greens (a 60 and 56-degree wedge), but at courses like Royal Troon, he often has to decide between 4 or 5 clubs because of how difficult the lies can be. The reason for this is the lies offer so little “give” that you have to hit a more difficult shot with a club with less loft, because the margin for error is razor thin. Playing links golf presents a totally different challenge because you simply cannot miss fairways and have a chance to win. In traditional tournaments, when these guys end up in the rough, they can usually still reach the green and give themselves a look at birdie. At Royal Troon, if you end up in the rough you must pray that you can even find it, let alone get something to the green. Imagine trying to hit a golf ball nestled down under a pile of shoelaces, that’s what these guys will inevitably face this week.
Once in the fairway, you will see players hitting approach shots a bit different than we are used to. Instead of trying to throw darts at the pin, you can expect a lot of shots that land short and trundle up to the green as the area around the greens is almost just as short as the grass on the green. When these players approach a shot, you will notice they are not playing to the pin, instead, they are playing to a certain spot on the golf course that will end up taking the ball towards the pin (in theory, of course).
All of this is a constant, but the variable that always has the biggest impact? Weather. For golf purists, ideal weather conditions at The Open involves a steady rain, thick fog & 10-15 mph winds. Some Opens have had to delay play because balls were oscillating on the greens due to such intense winds. Here is the forecast for the week ahead:
Thursday 18th – Cloudy with outbreaks of mainly light rain or drizzle on-and-off during the day. Becoming breezy with the chance of a longer period of rain and drizzle developing from late afternoon. (Rainfall: 1- 3mm, 20% 4-8mm). Winds: S or SSE 12-15mph, gust 20-25mph, strongest in the early afternoon. Easing S 8-12mph gust 15-20mph by early evening. High: 18°C (64°F).
Friday 19th – Cloudy overnight, a chance of further rain and drizzle at times. Turning drier, with the potential to see some brighter spells at times. (Rainfall: 0-1mm, 20% 2-3mm). Winds: S 5-10mph gust 10- 15mph at first, increasing through the morning to S 12-15mph gust 20-25mph. Potential to see gusts up to 28-32mph during the afternoon on Friday. High: 20-21°C (68-69°F).
Rest of Championship – Low confidence in detail. Likely a continuation of unsettled conditions, with periods of rain and showers moving through at times, sunny intervals are possible. Windy at times from the S to SW with maximum temperatures remaining around 18°C (64°F).
Tiger Woods, who is seeking his 16th major this week, made headlines before tournament play has even begun. Former PGA Tour player, Colin Montgomerie, made a comment earlier this week about Tiger playing in the tournament, “I hope people remember Tiger as Tiger was, the passion and the charismatic aura around him,” said Montgomerie. “There is none of that now. At Pinehurst, he did not seem to enjoy a single shot and you think, ‘What the hell is he doing?’ He’s coming to Troon, and he won’t enjoy it there either.” to which Woods responded by saying,
“Well, as a past champion, I’m exempt until I’m 60,” said Woods. “Colin’s not. He’s not a past champion, so he’s not exempt. So, he doesn’t get the opportunity to make that decision. I do. So, when I get to his age, I get to still make that decision, where he doesn’t.”
*Mic drop*
What do I expect out of Tiger this week? Not much. I think a successful week for Tiger would mean making the cut. And I really, really hope I underestimate him, and he finishes inside the top 25. These courses and tournaments offer the opportunity for anyone to make a charge. It does not demand a ton of distance off the tee, it requires you to be surgical with your shot placement. And Woods, who doesn’t quite have his early 2000’s distance, has still displayed a high-level of shot-making ability.
If we are being more realistic in who we think has a chance to win, there are a few names that catch my eye.
Rory McIlroy: Coming off a T-4 at the Genesis Scottish Open, and a heartbreaking 2nd-place at the US Open, McIlroy is still trying to break the stigma that he can’t win another major. At this point in his career, and after the brutal missed putts on the 7oth & 72nd hole at the US Open, you have to believe McIlroy is starting to hear that outside chatter. To me, Rory is above letting that affect his play. If Rory isn’t in contention on Sunday, it will be a disappointment for the four-time major champion
Scottie Scheffler: Scottie is in the midst of a Tiger-like run at this point in his career. He is miles ahead of the field in the FedEx Cup (PGA Tour Playoff system) rankings, he comes in to every tournament now as a prohibitive favorite, and he always seems to find himself in contention. Like Augusta, I think courses like this fit Scheffler’s game well. Scottie is not a bomber like some of the guys in the field. While he is still a long player, his best attribute is his ball striking. Scheffler is of the upper echelon with an iron in his hands, and there isn’t a shot he is uncomfortable with. Marry that with his exquisite touch around the greens, he fits the mold perfectly of an Open Champion. Even if Scottie only has his B- putting game this week, he should find himself in one of the last few groups come Sunday.
Robert MacIntyre: Normally after winning an event, you would think a player can’t get off the emotional high in time to refocus on the next tournament. But McIntyre has a couple things going for him after his win last week at the Scottish Genesis Open. 1.) This will feel like a home game for the Scot who grew up on links style courses and 2.) Coming off a win at a similar style course can allow Robert to carry that same playstyle into a much bigger tournament. McIntyre has been playing the best golf of his career this season, and he should be in a very comfortable spot to continue that. That is if he finds more sprinkler heads in the rough this week.
Ludvig Aberg: Aberg is a name we will be hearing a lot of in the coming years. One of the most consistent and exciting players out on tour, he is slowly learning how to compete and soon enough win out amongst the best. Aberg was in the driver’s seat at the Scottish Open but was thrown off kilter by slow play. Aberg has enough experience under his belt where the moment won’t get too big for him, and he is a guy who is a near lock to win a major in his career. Will this week be his first?
Aaron Rai: If you want to talk about a guy who is flying way under the radar that shouldn’t be, Aaron Rai is your guy. Rai is a player committed to his process, always takes ample consideration over each shot which is a necessity at Royal Troon. Rai falls into the category of ‘unique’ as a player. He is one of the shortest hitters on tour, does not play a draw but does play with two gloves on. In the new world of golf, everyone thinks you need to be able to drive it 320+, Rai is proving them all wrong. Rai has been on a blistering hot stretch lately and, like Aberg, seems unphased by big moments. His last four finishes were all inside the top 20, the last two in the top ten. If you are a gambler, a little sprinkle on Rai might be a good play.
Xander Schauffele: After getting the major monkey off his back a few weeks ago at Valhalla, Schauffele seems like he can play freer golf now that his expectations have been paid off with a PGA Championship victory. With Scheffler’s dominance the last few months, I feel like Schauffele’s great play has gone a bit unnoticed. So often we see his name near the top of the leaderboard as he continues to play squeaky clean golf. I will not be surprised to see him knocking on the door again this week.
The Open Championship is always so exciting because you never know what to expect. Brian Harmon seemingly came out of nowhere last year and won it, giving hope to all those in the field who many are not giving a chance. It is also great because the first group goes off just after midnight tonight. I am one of those weird sports fans who loves live sports at strange times, so watching golf at 3:00 AM is weirdly enjoyable. It is bittersweet that this is the final major championship of the season, so lets enjoy it while we have it!
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